The Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 offseason headline and chief discussion has revolved around the team adding another wide receiver opposite George Pickens. Will it be a trade? If so, who will they land and what will be the cost? If no one from the outside swoops in, who from the internal pool of candidates will emerge? And can the Steelers’ offense function without a true No. 2?
All great questions we’ll wait to get answers to.
If you want a preview of what next year’s headline could be, it might revolve around paying George Pickens. If Pickens has the type of year he’s capable of and the Steelers need, he’ll be asking for a big-money deal next offseason.
The wide receiver market has gotten red-hot. Many have been paid, with several more to follow. This offseason, here are the average yearly values of the top receivers who’ve earned new deals.
A.J. Brown – $32 million (No. 1 among WRs)
Amon-Ra St. Brown – $30 million (No. 2)
Jaylen Waddle – $28.25 million (No. 4)
Devonta Smith – $25 million (No. 7)
Nico Collins – $24.25 million (No. 8)
Calvin Ridley – $23 million (No. 13)
Those are the broadly reported numbers and averages without getting into the weeds of each deal’s specifics. But that’s the baseline in which agents look to get paid and the top-line figure that gets reported in determining the highest paid wideouts. A key benchmark to create the framework of any long-term deal.
That list is going to substantially change. Receivers expected to be paid this offseason, or at the latest next March, include Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk and Tee Higgins. Four of those names, everyone but Higgins, could and likely will have a long-term deal in place ahead of Week 1. And they could all clear the $30 million bar. In fact, I’d be shocked if they didn’t. All four are better than St. Brown, and all four will want to top the contract he received. That’s just how the market works.
Just making up some numbers, imagine a wide receiver market that looks something like this by the time the season starts.
1. Justin Jefferson – $35.5 million
2. Ja’Marr Chase – $34.5 million
3. CeeDee Lamb – $32.7 million
4. A.J. Brown – $32.0 million
5. Brandon Aiyuk – $30.5 million
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown – $30 million
7. Tyreek Hill – $30 million
Seven receivers in the $30 million club with several not far off. A dramatic change to the market over the last several months when entering the offseason, Hill was the highest-paid receiver at only $30 million per season.
Now, imagine Pickens having an awesome 2024 season. Something like 70 to 75 receptions, 1,200-plus yards and 6 touchdowns. With a rising cap and players like Higgins likely receiving in the high 20’s on a new deal next free agency, Pickens will be calling to join that club.
Will he get it? Maybe, maybe not. He’s not as talented as those top names. But the market doesn’t always evenly align with top talent. Jared Goff isn’t the second-best quarterback in football, but he’s currently paid like it.
Even if Pickens falls short of $30 million average yearly value, his asking price will come close. No doubt above Collins and Smith at $25 million.
If that happens, will the Steelers pay it? It’s a hefty amount, but it will be the going rate for receivers who put up those numbers. Dave Bryan will discuss the details more but the structure of the deal could also be tricky. Would Pittsburgh be willing to offer guaranteed salary past the first year? They currently reserve it for quarterbacks or true No. 1 market deals — T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick — making this the first true modern day “big money” deal that isn’t a top-slot. That makes things tricky, especially if other receivers are receiving some sort of it.
Pittsburgh doesn’t have to do anything. Pickens is under contract through 2025, not a free agent after this season. But if the Steelers don’t want to do an extension on those terms, Pickens could skip OTAs and hold-in during training camp. Diontae Johnson did during Pickens’ rookie year and got an extension out of it. He’s certainly been someone to let the team know when he’s unhappy. It would certainly be a story and top headline during the summer and into camp. It’ll be a good “problem” to have, meaning Pickens played well and this offense hopefully saw success, but it might be the story that dominates the local media headlines until it’s resolved.
