On the surface, bringing in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields should boost a stagnant Pittsburgh Steelers passing game. ESPN’s annual predictions paints a different picture. Mike Clay’s yearly projections do show an improvement in the number of touchdown passes. But only by a little.
According to his algorithm, Wilson and Fields will throw just 20 combined touchdowns across 17 games in 2024. Wilson, starting 13 games, is predicted to throw 15 of them while Fields will throw five in four starts. If that’s the case, it’ll be only a minor upgrade over 2023 when Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky threw for a combined 13 scores. Worse, Wilson is predicted to throw nine interceptions, an ugly ratio, while Fields is marked down for three.
For Wilson, throwing just 15 touchdowns would be the fewest of his career, one less than the 16 he threw in 2022 with the Denver Broncos. Even in 2023, a year where he ended on the bench, Wilson tossed 26 across 15 starts. In total, that’s a season throwing 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Pittsburgh’s run-heavy offense will hold down some of the pass-game numbers but 20 touchdowns in 17 games won’t take the Steelers where they want to go. Put another way, the only team to throw 20 or fewer touchdowns a season ago was Pittsburgh. Repeating that goal will be difficult to do. Hitting at least the 25 mark should be the minimum, especially knowing how strong Wilson has been in the red zone even during last year’s struggles.
Steelers Projected Quarterback Numbers In 2024
Russell Wilson: 2,913 passing yards (63.6 completion percentage) 15 TDs, 9 INTs, two rushing TDs
Justin Fields: 835 passing yards (62.5 completion percentage) 5 TDs 3 INTs, one rushing TD
Predictably, the team’s receiving numbers are also light. WR George Pickens, clearly the Steelers’ No. 1 receiver, is projected to finish with 68 catches for 1,040 yards and four touchdowns. The receptions would be a career high but his yards per catch plummets while his yards and touchdowns would be regressions compared to 2023. The rest of the group, in true Arthur Smith-coached fashion, is a hodgepodge of names with similar numbers.
Steelers Projected Receiver Numbers In 2024
George Pickens: 68 receptions, 1,040 yards, 4 TDs
Van Jefferson: 28 receptions, 403 yards, 2 TDs
Roman Wilson: 26 receptions, 366 yards, 2 TDs
Calvin Austin III: 18 receptions, 237 yards, 1 TD
Jefferson and Wilson at least have solid yards-per-reception, but the volume of production is minimal. TE Pat Freiermuth serves as the team’s true No. 2 receiver but even his numbers don’t top his first two years in the league, ending with 57 catches, 590 yards, and four scores.
The run game for Pittsburgh doesn’t take the leap the team expects. Najee Harris’ streak of 1,000-yard season ends at three, finishing his fourth year with just 890 and an average just over four yards per carry. Jaylen Warren finishes with 597 yards rushing and three touchdowns, soaking up checkdowns with 54 receptions to finish third on the team.
Steelers Projected Rushing Numbers In 2024
Najee Harris: 219 attempts, 890 yards, 6 TDs – 54 receptions, 1 TD
Jaylen Warren: 124 attempts, 597 yards, 3 TDs – 28 receptions, 1 TD
In total, Clay’s projections put the Steelers at just 7.9 wins, effectively an 8-9 season. That’d keep Pittsburgh out of the playoffs and give Mike Tomlin the first losing season of his career. It would also put the Steelers in dead last of the division by a considerable margin.
AFC North Standing Win Total Projections
1. Baltimore Ravens – 11.3
2. Cincinnati Bengals – 10.4
3. Cleveland Browns – 10.1
4. Pittsburgh Steelers – 7.9
For what it’s worth, Clay’s projections have more “normalized” numbers without many outlier or gaudy stat lines. They project as if each player played in 15 games, accounting for some level of injury. Still, only one quarterback is projected to throw more than 27 touchdowns, Patrick Mahomes’ 33, something seven quarterbacks did a year ago. Only six of them throw for over 4,000 yards, a mark 10 passers hit in 2023. No NFL receiver achieves 10 touchdowns, which happened seven times last year, and only five catch at least 100 passes. More than double, 12 of them, did so last year. So keep in mind numbers are muted across the board, not just for Pittsburgh.
Still, the Steelers better be able to beat these marks by considerable margins. Or they’ll be back to the quarterback drawing board in 2025, still awaiting their first playoff win since 2016.
