It’s lying season in the NFL. With the draft 11 days away, it’s difficult to separate fact from fiction and ultimately, no one knows how things will play out once things kick off on April 25. But Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller is publicly suggesting his GM Brandon Beane is willing to make a move up for a wide receiver. And *if* that’s true, a deal with the Steelers could make sense.
Yesterday, Miller shared this story on his Instagram story, a video of Beane captioned with the words, “Brandon Beane arriving to the 2024 NFL Draft to trade up for a WR. In Beane we trust. Bills Mafia LFG”
Is Beane keeping Miller in the loop of all his draft plans? Probably not. But it’s also logical. Buffalo has a clear need at receiver after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and they likely began mapping out a plan to replace Diggs before finalizing the deal.
The 2024 draft class is full of talented receivers, with potentially a half-dozen of them selected in the first round. But Buffalo is sitting at No. 28 towards the end of Day One, and they may get aggressive about getting one of the top prospects instead of letting the board dictate things to them.
For full context, there have been media reports that suggest the opposite. In a recent ESPN insider article, draft analyst Jordan Reid wrote he heard Buffalo is “content” to stay at No. 28 or even trade down. But in the same article, local Bills’ reporter Alaina Getzenberg noted not to be surprised if the Bills trade up this year. She pointed to Beane’s record of making first-round moves, trading up in 2022 and 2023. Buffalo would be foolish not to at least work the phones come the draft.
Enter Pittsburgh, a team less likely to draft a receiver in the first round and lacking draft capital to fill all its needs. Trading down in the first round is incredibly rare—the Steelers haven’t done it since 2001—but GM Omar Khan is likely more flexible than the rigid Kevin Colbert when it came to draft day trades, especially moving down.
Though the Steelers aren’t in a spot for the Bills to move up and grab one of the top receivers in the draft, they could target Tier Two options. That could mean someone like LSU’s Brian Thomas or perhaps one of the Texas receivers, AD Mitchell or Xavier Worthy. The latter would be an ideal replacement for Gabe Davis, who signed with Jacksonville and would replace his speed. On paper, there’s a fit.
But there’s a problem. Buffalo has ten draft picks but less-than-ideal capital to make a trade work. They pick at No. 28 and No. 60 but not again until No. 128 in the fourth round. For Pittsburgh, getting back a third-round pick to move down eight spots would be the sweet spot, but that isn’t possible in a potential deal here. Meaning, the Steelers would have to get creative with a deal’s structure. Just talking out loud, here’s one scenario.
Buffalo Receives: No. 20, No. 98
Pittsburgh Receives: No. 28, No. 60, No. 144
According to the old-school trade value chart (and there are new ones, and not all teams follow them to the letter, I know), the Bills come away with 958 points of pick value. Pittsburgh has 994. A “win” for the Steelers but the Bills get their first-round receiver, making it a win for them. Pittsburgh goes down eight spots to grab an additional second-round pick, giving them No. 51 and 60 while still securing their initial third-round pick at No. 84.
Pittsburgh also gets a fifth-round pick, No. 144, giving them a selection in a round they don’t currently have. Buffalo picks at No. 128, No. 133, No. 160, and No. 160. They’re not missing that fifth-rounder.
While the Steelers don’t pick up an extra selection early in this draft, which would be ideal, it’s still moving up to get a pair of second-round picks instead of a pair of third-rounders. Which is a win. They’ll get better prospects and be a stronger team for it. The downside is it could take them out of the running for a top tackle but perhaps someone like Georgia’s Amarius Mims falls due to concerns over lack of experience. Or perhaps that’s where Pittsburgh could draft their center, either Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson or West Virginia’s Zach Frazier.
None of this is ironclad. It’s an example of how the draft could play out. And a scenario to monitor if Pittsburgh has an interest in trading down that Thursday night.
