Buy Or Sell: OLB Alex Highsmith is not a reliable 10-sack edge rusher.
Explanation: First and foremost, there’s nothing inherently insulting about not reliably producing double-digit sacks. That’s not an easy thing to do. On average, fewer than 20 players manage it annually, meaning many teams don’t even have one of those. Yet we must note that Alex Highsmith followed his “breakout” season with just seven sacks last season. In three years as a full-time starter, he’s averaging 9.2 sacks per year, with one outlier year.
Buy:
Many expected a linear progression from one year to the next for Alex Highsmith, but the 2023 season proved otherwise. After six sacks in his first season as a starter, he jumped to 14.5, but fell back down to seven. So where does he fall in between those extremes?
The evidence suggests closer to the seven than to twice that figure. He is a high-volume pressure player, but not always a quality pressure player. His big thing coming out of the 2021 season was learning to finish plays. Some thought he managed that in 2022, but really, he had more luck once he got behind the line.
This is in no way a disparagement of the quality of player Highsmith is. He plays with T.J. Watt, and that’s going to hurt your sack total as much as help it. You beat your man only to find that Watt is already picking the quarterback up off the ground. In 2022, Highsmith mostly played with a hobbled Watt or without him.
Sell:
Highsmith is capable of regularly producing double-digit sacks, whether he does or does not. So far, he hasn’t proven reliable in hitting that particular mark, but he should if he stays healthy. He wins too often not to find more success. If anything, he’s been more unlucky than lucky for most of his career as a pass rusher.
The fact is the 2023 season was Highsmith’s best as a pass rusher in spite of what the sacks might say. But he played with an offense that kept the defense gassed, with a shaky secondary, with broken middle linebackers, with a mediocre defensive line. Patch up the holes around him, wind him up, and watch him go. You’ll get your numbers if you provide the conditions that allow him to do so. Even with Watt getting 19 of his own on the other side.
With the Steelers’ 2023 season in the rearview mirror following a disappointing year that came up short in the playoffs once again, it’s time to start asking more questions. Questions about the team’s future in 2024 and beyond. Questions about The Standard.
The rookie class of a year ago was on the whole impressive, but they need to step up into staple starters in 2024. And they likely need a strong influx of talent in both free agency and in the 2024 NFL Draft yet again. In addition to a revisitation of the coaching staff.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
