With the NFL Scouting Combine wrapped up, for the next couple of weeks, we’re switching to free-agent mode. The legal tampering period kicks off Monday with the new league year starting 48 hours later. I’ve offered my offensive and defensive wish lists for the Steelers. Now, I’ll give my big-picture predictions of what I think the team will (and won’t) do during this first wave of free agency.
1. They’ll Sign A Veteran Quarterback (If Mason Rudolph Isn’t Brought Back), Won’t Make Big Swing At QB
Starting off with an obvious one. I had wavered a bit after recent reports and specu-porting but ultimately, I don’t see them being players for any of the “name” quarterbacks. No Justin Fields, no Russell Wilson, no Kirk Cousins. They’re sticking with Kenny Pickett and want competition, not a replacement. Cousins is a clear starter, Fields would start if traded for, and Wilson, while probably cheap, isn’t coming unless he’s highly confident he’s going to start. He’s not signing to hold a clipboard. So I believe the Steelers when they tell us, repeatedly, what they’re going to do.
That means they’re going the vet competition route. Rudolph is their first avenue, hoping to re-sign him. If they can’t, they’ll bring in veteran competition. My free agent list included the likes of Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill, and Drew Lock. Pedigree, some mobility, and reasonable cost who can’t get mad if they start the year on the bench.
2. A Low/Mid-Tier Center Will Be Added
I’m less sure of this one. There’s an obvious hole and need at center, and in theory, the Steelers can address it in free agency or the draft. But I believe it’ll come through the latter. The contracts are cheaper, and I think the team wants a true long-term option instead of a veteran stopgap, and paying for a top-end center on the market is pricey. It’s a good draft class and it’s clear they have interest in the top names, notably West Virginia’s Zach Frazier.
But they don’t want to go into the draft with nothing. They’ll add something and a low to mid-tier option for a couple million is logical. Figuring out that name a bit harder to do but the team will find someone. I don’t expect it to be for starter money, and I’ll draw that line as less than what Mason Cole’s average yearly value was when he signed a $5.25 million average yearly value contract in 2022. This is one area where I could be wrong but it’s what my gut is telling me.
3. Safety Will Receive Upgrade
If there’s a place to take a swing in free agency, it’s at safety. They need to get younger and faster and find a strong safety opposite Minkah Fitzpatrick. The draft class is weak, making it a position to target in free agency, and the FA class has several options.
Adding someone here would allow the team to release Keanu Neal and save a bit of money in the process. And would give a clear free safety/strong safety pairing the team enjoyed with Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds that just felt too messy last year, even prior to the slew of injuries. Pittsburgh could spend some money here.
4. Similar Money Structure To Past Two Offseasons (2-3 Starters) With One Bigger Signing
A big-picture thought of how to expect the Steelers to operate in free agency. It should be similar to the past two offseasons of the team signing two to three starting-caliber players as they did with James Daniels, Isaac Seumalo, Cole Holcomb, and Patrick Peterson. But I could see their top free agent prize signing for a higher APY than any of those names, currently held by Daniels’ $8.83 million. That would make for the highest-paid free agent in team history, though it doesn’t take into consideration relativity to the cap.
Where exactly that’ll come, I’m not sure. Potentially corner, maybe safety. But the higher-than-expected salary cap and Pittsburgh’s angst to win a playoff game will create a bit more aggression.
5. More Emphasis On Defense Than Offense
You’re probably picking up on a theme here. I understand questioning the thought process considering the Steelers have one of the youngest offenses and oldest defenses. Why not add offensive free agents and draft for defense? The reality is two parts.
One, they’ll do both. It’s not mutually exclusive. They will add to their offense and defense in free agency and the draft. And free agent plans are often dictated by the strength of the group there and in the draft. Defensively, there are strong free agent groups that aren’t as strong in the draft (safety and, I’d argue, inside linebacker). Offensively, there are strong draft classes weaker in free agency (tackle, wide receiver, and center are more attractive in the draft than free agency).
6. Wild Cards: Inside Linebacker, Cornerback
Two positions I’m not sure how the Steelers will approach. Inside linebacker and corner. There’s cases they could be addressed either in the draft and free agency. Omar Khan made it clear they will be do something significant at inside linebacker and it could come from either bucket. It feels like they will address corner in free agency and the draft with needs and wants at outside corner and slot corner. But very curious to see what the team does.
7. Will Sign A Starting-Caliber Punter
We’ll finish with one I feel strongly about. They will sign a talented and veteran punter. Tired of dealing with draft picks and middling options, they know the value of a punter for an offense that won’t be a top-five unit even if it improves. They need a field flipper. Which means going after a veteran. It’ll cost a bit of money but worth every single cent. Tommy Townsend is the name I’m circling but there are several solid options the team can target.
8. Individual Player Predictions
Of the Steelers’ pending free agents, my guesses of who will stay and who will go. It’s not exactly a major list of names but my predictions all the same.
DL Armon Watts – Re-signs
Watts graded out well in our charting and is a solid rotational player worth keeping around on the back end of their depth chart. He’ll be a cost-effective name to keep. DeMarvin Leal looks like a bust while Isaiahh Loudermilk has been a marginal player struggling to find a role and playing time.
LB Blake Martinez – Leaves
We hardly knew ye. Martinez signed midseason and appeared in one game. But that was a short-term and stopgap thing. Easy decision here.
CB Chandon Sullivan – Re-signs
Sullivan came on strong after injuries ravaged the Steelers’ secondary. He’s a zone defender who will struggle to turn and run but likes to hit and played over 200 special teams snaps. He could come back on a cheap one-year contract.
S Elijah Riley – Leaves
This one could go either way, but I’ll lean toward Riley leaving. Like his size and special teams value but the Steelers kept him off the field for most of last year, even when he got healthy and the Steelers’ safety group was crushed by injuries. Probably someone who parts ways as part of yearly roster churn.
CB Levi Wallace: Re-signs
Trickier call here. I’d have no problem moving on from Wallace, but Pittsburgh may want to have something at outside corner that isn’t an unknown like Cory Trice Jr. and Darius Rush. Wallace should be able to come back on a very cheap one-year deal. Really a coin flip if he stays or goes but I’ll nudge staying, at least through camp.
CB James Pierre – Leaves
Pierre has been a quality gunner and special teamer. But that’s all he appears to be. Despite having the physical tools as a cover corner, his play has always been inconsistent and he makes too many mental errors. At some point, you move on from these guys. This feels like the year it’ll happen.
LB Kwon Alexander – Leaves…and maybe revisits in August
Alexander was playing well before tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 10. The second such injury of his career and turning 30 in August, it’s hard to believe he has much of an NFL career left. And certainly, there is no rush for him to be re-signed. Perhaps the Steelers can do what they did last year and check in around the start of camp and see where he is with his recovery. But the team will explore other options and add to the inside linebacker group well before then.
EDGE Markus Golden – Leaves
Golden played well enough last season and has close ties to OLBs Coach Denzel Martin. But he’s about to turn 33 and Nick Herbig should and will be the Steelers’ No. 3 outside linebacker in 2024. Golden has no special teams value, something that hurt the team last year, and the team claiming Jeremiah Moon off waivers signals a desire to go in a new direction.
QB Mason Rudolph: Leaves
The toughest call I had to make. It’s certainly possible the Steelers bring him back. I closed the door on that happening last year and was proven wrong. But Rudolph won’t have the ice-cold market he encountered in 2023 after playing well and leading Pittsburgh to the playoffs.
The question comes down to whether Rudolph believes, if he re-signs, that he’d have a sincere chance to beat out Pickett for the job this summer. I think his conclusion will be no. The Steelers want and need Pickett to be evaluated this year, and the only way to do that is to play the guy. Rudolph could be a comfortable No. 2 and he won’t be a starter anywhere but at least he’ll go to a place with an honest evaluation of where he stands. He’s tired of being Charlie Brown in Pittsburgh and watching Lucy pull the football away from him every time.
WR Miles Boykin – Leaves
Boykin has been a top gunner in Pittsburgh and he could, like last year, return on a one-year deal. But I think the team will look for a more offensive threat at the bottom of its wide receiver depth chart while also targeting someone who can play on special teams. Perhaps Boykin will re-up during the summer, but this could be a point where the team moves on.
S Miles Killebrew – Re-signs
One of the notable players the Steelers should re-sign, Killebrew made his first Pro Bowl and All-Pro team in 2023 after blocking a pair of punts. An ace ‘teamer and leader in that phase, it’s hard to know exactly what he’ll cost but he’s one of those guys you want toward the end of your 53-man roster. He is going to be 31 in May but he can definitely play for at least one more season. Interesting to see if he’ll have any type of free agent market considering all the accolades he received.
NT Montravius Adams – Leaves
A free agent no one has really talked about, Adams lost his starting nose tackle job to Keeanu Benton. He’s explosive off the ball and plays with awesome effort. I’ve always liked the dude. But time’s probably up on him and he’ll look for a chance to play somewhere else. The Steelers will have to figure out their backup nose tackle situation, though it’s lower on their list of concerns.
LB Mykal Walker – Leaves
An obvious answer here. Signed midseason to try and stop the bleeding of injuries, Walker was terrible in coverage. It’s surprising how much the team continued to play, him which really suggested its lack of trust in Mark Robinson. But Walker won’t be back.
