The cupboard is bare in the Steelers’ quarterback room. As it currently stands, Kenny Pickett is the lone signal caller under contract. This offseason, just about every free agent and potentially available quarterback in the NFL has been mentioned as a possible fit for the team.
The Steelers usually take four quarterbacks to training camp so there are three spots to fill. Most people believe a veteran will be brought in to back up the starter or compete for the QB1 job.
Another option that has been thrown around is to draft a quarterback. The Steelers have said they are behind Pickett, so an early-round selection is probably unlikely. That leads to the Day 3 selection. The proverbial “developmental” quarterback. That got me thinking. What does that mean?
Developmental would be considered players who have some of the traits you look for in the position, but they have other traits that are below the threshold of where they would like them to be. The idea is the player could improve enough to stick with the team and be trusted when his number is called.
Now, this is very dependent on the effort and ability of the player as well as the ability of the coaching staff to help said player improve. New quarterbacks coach Tom Arth comes with an impressive resume, and we all hope he can help every quarterback on the roster improve.
However, this query is not about him or any Steelers coach. I was more curious about recent history within the NFL. Do Day 3-drafted quarterbacks “develop,” and is it worth using a valuable draft pick to select them?
I took a look at the last 10 draft to see the outcome of those selections and some of the information is interesting.
Day Three Guys
Since 2014, there have been 62 quarterbacks selected in rounds four through seven. That’s more than six per year. The clubhouse leader by far at this point is Dak Prescott. A fourth-round pick in 2016, he was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and has been to three Pro Bowls while starting 114 games. Including the playoffs, he has thrown for over 30,000 yards and 216 touchdowns. Nice selection.
The next four quarterbacks on the list have combined for 29,000 yards, 175 touchdowns and 13 more interceptions than Prescott (94 to 81) in 115 starts. Those four quarterbacks are Gardner Minshew II, Trevor Siemian, Brock Purdy, and Sam Howell.
After that the numbers really start to drop off. Just 12 of 62 picks (19 percent) have thrown for 2,000 or more yards in their career. That group includes some veterans like Joshua Dobbs and Mike White and younger players like Aidan O’Connell and Bailey Zappe.
On the other end of the spectrum, 19 players (27 percent) have never played a down in the NFL. The most successful of that group is the Steelers’ seventh-round pick from 2020, Chris Oladokun. He has two Super Bowl rings as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs’ practice squad.
Steelers Selections
Which brings me to the Steelers’ Day 3 selections. Since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted, there have been five total starting with Bowling Green’s Omar Jacobs in the fifth round in 2006. He spent time on the practice squad with Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Kansas City but didn’t get into a regular-season game.
Next up is Oregon’s Dennis Dixon, who finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting in 2007. In three seasons in Pittsburgh, the 2008 fifth-round pick played in four games, starting three and getting a ring for the Super Bowl win over Arizona. He spent time on three additional teams practice squads and earned another ring with Baltimore.
Landry Jones was a fourth-round pick in 2013. After throwing for over 16,000 yards and 123 scores at Oklahoma, he was QB2 behind Roethlisberger and was in Black and Gold until 2017. He spent time with the Jaguars and the then Oakland Raiders before a year in the XFL with the Dallas Renegades. He finished with 1,321 yards and eight TDs in 18 games and five starts, all with Pittsburgh.
Four years later in 2017, Joshua Dobbs was another fourth-round pick. He spent two years with the Steelers before being traded to Jacksonville when Mason Rudolph won the backup job. The definition of a journeyman, he came back to Pittsburgh in 2020 before spending time in Cleveland (twice), Detroit, Tennessee, Arizona, and Minnesota.
Of those players, Jones was the most successful statistically with Pittsburgh. However, you could make an argument that undrafted free agent Devlin Hodges was just as successful as Jones. In one season, Hodges created Duck-mania while playing eight games, starting six and winning half of those games.
Yay or Nay?
This all brings me to the question of whether the Steelers — or any team for the matter — should select a quarterback on Day 3 of the NFL draft.
— Just five of 62 (8 percent) have thrown for 20 or more career touchdowns.
— Only six of 62 have played in 20 or more career games.
— Twelve of 62 have thrown for at least 2,000 yards in their career.
Over one quarter of the group, 19 of 62 (27 percent), never played a game.
Is it more advantageous to use that to pick on another player? Someone who can rotate on the defensive line. A player who can be a core special teamer. A defensive back who can play in sub-packages. Choosing a player who can see the field week after week rather than a guy who might be the second- or third-string quarterback for the next three years and rarely get the call.
Yes, diamonds in the rough can be found. If a team has a roster with fewer holes, a quarterback could be the way to go. And yes, teams do make selections of players who don’t pan out at every position.
Would you rather have Brett Hundley or Jesse James? Easton Stick or Cole Holcomb? Jacob Eason or Kevin Dotson?
After last year’s draft, we see that general manager Omar Khan, the scouting staff and the rest of the front office can find contributors on Day 3. There may be more value in a weekly contributor than a player with a small percentage just to get on the field much less contribute.
Is the better option for Pittsburgh to sign a veteran quarterback for the No. 2 spot and then add an undrafted free agent (or two) and/or a quarterback from the UFL to fight for the No. 3 spot?
Based on the numbers, my thinking is yes.
