The Pittsburgh Steelers have reportedly tabbed Arthur Smith to be the team’s new offensive coordinator. On the heels of that, I wanted to provide some research that I have done related to his history as a play caller when it comes to a key passing stat. That stat, as you have probably guessed by now, is the ANY/A stat, which is short for adjusted net yards per passing attempt. When it comes to Smith, specifically, a strong ANY/A stat in Pittsburgh will more than likely be tied to the Steelers’ running game improving instantly.
As I have proven several times over the years, the ANY/A stat is very telling when it comes to not only teams making the playoffs but also making deep runs in the postseason. When it comes to the five-year history of Smith in his two previous coaching stints as play caller, the ANY/A stat has been telling as well.
In his two seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans, the ANY/A stat produced by the passers on those two teams, mainly QB Ryan Tannehill, were 7.54 and 7.84 in 2019 and 2020, respectively. If you know anything about the history of the ANY/A stat, those two seasons were strong. In fact, in 2019 and 2020, the Titans ranked fifth overall in the regular season when it came to team ANY/A.
As mentioned, Tannehill was the primary quarterback for the Titans for both the 2019 and 2020 seasons, his first two in Tennessee. Prior to arriving in Tennessee, Tannehill had compiled a personal career ANY/A stat of 5.87, which obviously wasn’t great at all. Since Smith left the Titans to become the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Tannehill’s ANY/A stat has regressed to 5.54 for the past three seasons.
Now, before we move forward, it is important to point out that in 2019 and 2020 the Titans had very strong rushing attacks, which were of course led by RB Derrick Henry. In 2019, the Titans registered a Rush EPA (expected points added) of -0.046, which was fifth best in the NFL that season. Their Rush SR (success rate) that season was 40.9 percent, also fifth best in the NFL. In 2020, the Titans’ Rush EPA was 0.069, which was second-best in the NFL that season and their Rush SR was a league-best 46.9 percent.
In the three seasons since Smith left the Titans, their rushing attack has declined. For those three seasons (2021-2023) combined, the Titans have registered a Rush EPA of -0.078, ranked 17th overall during that span, and a Rush SR of 37.9 percent, which ranked 28th overall for those three seasons. For what it’s worth, Henry missed 10 games over the course of those three seasons.
Now, in Smith’s three seasons in Atlanta, the Falcons’ offense really didn’t do well at all, especially when it comes to the ANY/A stat. In 2021, Smith’s first season in Atlanta, the team posted an ANY/A stat of 5.61, good for 19th in the NFL, with aging veteran QB Matt Ryan in his final season with the franchise. In 2022, the Falcons posted a team ANY/A of 5.83, 17th overall in the NFL, with veteran QB Marcus Mariota and then-rookie QB Desmond Ridder overseeing the quarterback duties. In 2023, the Falcons regressed even more in the ANY/A stat as the team posted a 5.44 number, ranked 22nd in the NFL, with Ridder and QB Taylor Heinicke both seeing playing time at quarterback.
In those three seasons that Smith was the head coach in Atlanta, the Falcons’ running game also wasn’t great at all, for the most part, and that certainly didn’t help the passing game. I’m not going to list those three seasons individually, but I will note that the Falcons’ combined Rush EPA for 2021 was -0.102, ranked 22nd overall in the NFL for 2021-23, while the team’s combined Rush SR stat for those three seasons was 37.7 percent, ranked 30th overall.
Now, I do think that it is important to point out that in 2021 the Falcons’ running attack was top five in the NFL in both Rush EPA and Rush SR. Even so, the team’s quarterback play was still dismal, per the team’s ANY/A stat of 5.83.
The main takeaways so far in this post — and they are not surprising ones — should be that Smith’s offenses, for the most part (two out of three seasons), have had good success in the ANY/A statistical category when his rushing attack was also very good (2019-2020). It also probably didn’t hurt Smith and the Titans in 2019 and 2020 having an experienced quarterback in Tannehill in his prime. Plain and simple, Tannehill thriving in those two seasons was likely a result of the team having a strong running attack and Smith being able to build a passing game for him off it.
With all of that now out of the way, let’s look at what Smith inherits in the running game department upon arriving in Pittsburgh. Last season, the Steelers registered a regular-season Rush EPA of -0.069, 12th best in the NFL, and a Rush SR of 40.9 percent, good for 10th overall in 2023. Good but not great. They do, however, still have two talented running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and an offensive line that should (hopefully) include a few upgrades in 2024.
As for the Steelers’ ANY/A stat last season, it obviously wasn’t great at all. As a team, the Steelers posted an ANY/A stat of 5.6, which ranked 21st overall in the NFL in 2023. Breaking it down by quarterback, Kenny Pickett posted an ANY/A stat in 2023 of 5.29. Mitch Trubisky posted a very ugly ANY/A stat 3.90 in 2023. Mason Rudolph, on the other hand, posted an astonishing ANY/A stat of 9.20 in the four regular-season games that he played in to close things out. That’s a good reason for the Steelers to re-sign Rudolph this offseason if at all possible. Trubisky, on the other hand, should be jettisoned in March.
By the way, Rudolph’s career regular-season ANY/A stat is 5.82. Trubisky’s is 5.50 and Pickett’s is 4.97. Why did Rudolph post a 9.20 ANY/A stat in the four total regular season-games in which he played to close things out 2023? Well, the fact that the Steelers’ running game posted a third-best Rush EPA of 0.086 and a Rush SR of 48.6 percent, second-best, in the team’s final three regular-season games probably helped quite a bit. Would Pickett have had such a strong three-game ANY/A stat had he been the quarterback to close the regular season? I kind of doubt it, but we will never know just the same.
So, where does all of this leave his now when it comes to Smith being the Steelers’ new offensive coordinator? For starters, his first priority should be the running game and it needs to be well within the top 10 in 2024 in both Rush EPA and Rush SR. If that doesn’t happen, it’s hard to visualize the team’s ANY/A stat being anything worth getting excited about, especially if Pickett is chosen to be the quarterback. Should Rudolph return this offseason and win the job, however, he just might be able to post a respectable ANY/A stat in 2024 if the Steelers’ running game is only around 10 in the NFL in both Rush EPA and Rush SR.
Smith had running game problems in two of the three seasons that he was the head coach and play caller in Atlanta. He also obviously didn’t get nearly strong enough quarterback play to overcome the deficiencies of the team’s running game in 2021 and 2023. That will likely be the same thing in Pittsburgh if Smith can’t get the running game going right out of the chute. Should Smith have a repeat of his 2022 season with the Falcons in 2024 with the Steelers, it more than likely be tied to the overall play from the quarterback position.
