The Pittsburgh Steelers have been consistent when talking to the media about the quarterback position this offseason. Both head coach Mike Tomlin and owner Art Rooney II have expressed their support for Kenny Pickett. That comes despite Pickett not even starting at the end of the season even after recovering from an ankle injury.
So fans and media alike have been on the new starting quarterback train since the season ended. However, ESPN’s Steelers reporter, Brooke Pryor, thinks that Pickett will be the starter in 2024. She joined The Hoffman Show on The Team 980 from the NFL Scouting Combine on Wednesday, and Pryor talked about her thoughts on Pickett.
“That’s a guy that you want to get out on the move, and somehow you have paralyzed him,” Pryor said. “It’s like there is this paralysis by analysis when he’s in the pocket. It’s like he forgot his instincts. So I think part of the reason why I think he will end up being the Steelers’ starting quarterback next year is because they have Arthur Smith… I do think Arthur Smith has the skill set and the scheme that can get the most out of a mobile quarterback.”
We all know that Smith can engineer a running game. He did it as offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans and then as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Yet what is most intriguing is the work that Smith did with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee when the latter had his two best seasons in the league. There are those who hope Smith can do the same with Pickett. We took a look earlier this offseason at two areas where Smith’s offense should maximize Pickett.
However, it does bear looking at why Pickett struggled in 2023. There was hope that he would progress from his rookie season into his second year, especially with an entire offseason to prepare as the starter. He did a better job taking care of the football, sure, but there was no major growth anywhere else.
“When you talk about putting these mobile guys in the right scheme and allowing them to run, it’s why I think one of the reasons that Pickett didn’t take a step forward is Matt Canada’s offense went horribly bad,” Pryor said. “It was so vanilla, it was so plain. Even though the stats showed Kenny was much more successful when they were using an RPO, God forbid they do that.”
But wait, Canada was Pickett’s offensive coordinator in 2022 as well. So why was Pickett slightly better in some areas as a rookie than in 2023? Well, Canada’s play calling changed.
In 2022, Pickett attempted 389 passes over the course of 13 games and 12 starts. Per Pro Football Reference, the Steelers ran 34 run-pass option plays with Pickett. He threw on 29 of those plays for 135 yards. He also ran the ball four times for 17 yards. In 2023, Pickett attempted 324 passes in 12 starts (he did miss time due to injury in multiple starts). The Steelers only ran 18 RPO plays with Pickett. He threw on all of them for 148 yards.
So the Steelers cut down on the number of RPOs, but Pickett ran them better in 2023. So why the heck did the Steelers not try that more? Then you get into the play-action numbers, and it gets even crazier. As a rookie, Pickett attempted 65 play-action passes for 315 yards. In 2023, the number dropped to 46 but he had 352 passing yards on those attempts.
The numbers were staring the Steelers and Matt Canada right in the face, and yet they did nothing. RPOs and play-action can help build a quarterback’s confidence. Sure, he wasn’t fantastic in terms of yards per attempt as a rookie. Yet he averaged 8.2 yards per RPO passing attempt and 7.7 yards per play-action passing attempt. Why would you not call those plays more often, especially with a running game that got going as the season progressed?
Then you factor in Pickett’s ability to run the ball, and it simply looks like Canada ran the 2023 offense with one arm and one leg tied behind Pickett’s back. Pickett ran the ball 55 times in 2022 for 237 yards and three touchdowns. In 2023, he ran the ball 42 times for 54 yards and one touchdown. Did Pickett suddenly forget how to run the ball?
No. Per Pro Football Focus, Pickett was much more successful on designed runs and scrambled much more often as a rookie than in 2023. PFF had him marked down for 27 designed runs for 235 yards and three touchdowns in 2022. He also scrambled 28 times for 198 yards.
In 2023, the Steelers actually had him run 28 times, but he only gained 54 yards with one touchdown. He also only scrambled 14 times for 71 yards. This speaks to Pryor’s comments about both the paralysis by analysis and the coaches not taking advantage of Pickett’s mobility. After all, she says, “They drafted [Pickett] because the Steelers want mobility.”
We also know that Smith wants to move his quarterback around, so that bodes well for harnessing Pickett’s athletic ability. Now, if you’re wondering if the Steelers might use that reasoning to pursue Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, who is quite the athlete, Pryor says don’t get your hopes up.
“No, no!” Pryor said. “God, I wish.”
Seems like the Steelers are quite serious about Pickett this offseason.
