Pavelle: Round 1-3 Options And Talent Distribution In The 2024 NFL Draft

2024 NFL Draft Round 1-3 options

Round 1 Philosophy

I look for (a) potential greatness with a solid career floor, (b) a position of want or need, or else (c) a special QB who falls into your lap. Also known as pure BPA at a position of need. I consider the positional value a tiebreaker at best and give no discount to Centers, RBs, Guards, and TEs simply because they earn less money on the free agency market. Great outweighs good every time.

Round 1 Options

Weird hypotheticals aside, that standard rules pretty much limit the Round 1 targets to QB, OT, CTR, and CB. Full rooms rule out picks at EDGE, OG, TE, and RB, while lack of talent moves DL, ILB, and SAF off the board. There is no Heyward, Shazier, or Polamalu to be had, but there are prospects who look that talented in the more desired positions. Here is my list of the players who ought to dominate Pittsburgh’s Round 1 research:

• Strike-through text indicates prospects who will not fall to 1:20.
• I would personally strike Bo Nix, Michael Penix, and J.J. McCarthy as well because I view them as not quite special enough. They’re included anyway because some of you will disagree, and my opinion is only worth so much.

That’s 20 names. Adding in a few all-but-certain WRs (Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers), EDGE prospects (Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse), and TE Brock Bowers raises that total to 27 names. The Steelers pick at #20 overall, so I’m about 99.9% sure that the table above includes the young man who will end up as Pittsburgh’s first selection.

NOTE: The length of that list makes a trade-down scenario more attractive than I can ever remember. I am emphatically not the sort of fan who annually yearns to collect more picks at the cost of picking the best player. Indeed, I refuse to take any risk at all in that regard. If I’m sitting at #20, and someone offers a good deal to move down to #23, I simply won’t do it unless I have three completely identical grades left on my board. This year I think that could easily happen.

Round 2-3 Philosophy, Bias And Options

In Round 2, I apply the same rules but add in a bigger chance that some special talent in the “wrong” position could face an unusual fall. This is the round for very good, but great always wins.

The talent pool for the 2024 draft widens out significantly on Day 2. Here is that list to the best of my current ability:

Here is a list of the Round 2-3 targets, offered with the following notes:

• Grades are Steelers-specific. Many excellent all-teams prospects do not appear because they are much less desirable when viewed from a purely-Pittsburgh POV. The most notable would be the 3-tech DTs and the 4-3 EDGE rushers we would have to convert into 3-4 DE/DTs.

• Receivers have a general downgrade because I consider it a less pressing need. Thus many of the players with Round 3 grades are likely to get picked by other teams in Round 2. The overall volume suggests that some of the genuine Round 3 talents may also slip into Round 4. Please note that Brenden Rice and Ainias Smith are personal favorites because I am targeting toughness as the #1 WR asset this year. There are several prospects on the list that I would pass over as poor fits, but cannot exclude altogether.

• ??? indicates a player I consider to be on the fringe of fair value in the indicated round. For the Steelers. Not necessarily for other teams.

• I do not think the EDGE grades are as complete or as accurate as the other positions. Despite what I wrote above, I have not given this group any serious study.

• RBs, TEs, and OGs are excluded for lack of need. There are a number who would be on the table if this was an all-teams board, right alongside all the players who only fit some other system.

Observations On The Distribution Of Talent

This year’s class has a few real quirks. Start with CTR, where I have a well-known bias. Mansfield -to-Webster-to-Dawson-to-Hartings-to-Pouncey. I want a Center! And I fully expect to get one this year because there are four really solid options: Barton (Round 1) Powers-Johnson (Round 1), Zach Frazier (Round 2 but also incredibly Steelerish), and Van Pran-Granger (who may have the highest floor of the group). Then comes the catch. FIRST, all four are such good draft options that no one expects any of them to reach pick 3:20. And SECOND, the talent pool plummets after those four like an oceanic trench. It’s Round 1, Round 2, or nothing. Eek.

The OT draft options look kind of similar, with a vastly longer set of names but also a higher demand for the position. Please note the relative lack of Round 2 options, especially since the three I list are all fringe-1st talents that probably won’t last until Pick #51. If the team passes in Round 1, it will probably need to wait until Round 3 before getting a realistic shot at landing a tackle. Round 3 isn’t all that populated either, but there are some fringe 3/4 talents who might be worth the investment.

The CB class is relatively deep. Six Top-20 grades, another six in the Top 50, and five to seven more in the Top 100. But Corner is also a position where the league has a real gulf between good vs. very good and another between very good and great. IMHO it is much harder to find midround gold at this position than it is for most others. I haven’t done enough research to say whether the CB depth continues into Round 4, let alone 5-7.

The DL class basically sucks from a Steelers POV. This is doubly frustrating because it’s actually a pretty strong class from the perspective of a 4-3 team that can utilize explosive 3-tech specialists and EDGE/DL hybrids. Alas, but those are the players that Pittsburgh can’t really use unless the coaches choose to revamp the entire defensive structure. You may feel free to add NT T’Vondre Sweat if you want, but I have personally removed him from consideration after his refusal to step on a scale during the Senior Bowl. A 320-340 lb. version might be special if it gave him enough wind to handle the full spectrum of DE/DT duties, but a 380-400 lb. version would be a wasted pick.

ILBs and SAFs are thin on draft options throughout the draft, but there are options in both Rounds 2 and 3. EDGE is pretty strong, but I’ve dropped almost all of them into Round 3 because the need is so low. As noted above, the EDGE grades are less accurate than all the others, and I’m probably missing some names.

QB offers some really interesting possibilities in Round 3.

WR draft options are just sickeningly deep. The real question comes down to the kind of WR we want Pittsburgh to target. For me, it’s a tough guy and, ideally, one who can play out of the slot. That preference has not been imposed on this list except to the extent my Master Board has that built in as a subconscious tilt.