George Pickens has made it clear that he thinks he should have been a Pro Bowler this season.
And he had a good case for it. His raw numbers won’t blow you away. While 63 receptions, 1140 yards, and five touchdowns are impressive, it doesn’t scream an automatic Pro Bowl berth. But when you dig deeper, you see just how historic of a season George Pickens quietly put together in 2023.
First off, and the obvious, is the disaster of a quarterback situation for the Steelers in 2023. Pickens caught balls from three different starters in Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. A combination that led to the team finishing 28th in passing yards and 30th in passing touchdowns. Not exactly an easy offense to put up good volume stats in.
So let’s take a look at Pickens’ rate stats instead. He led the league with 18.1 yards per reception and also put up 10.8 yards per target. Quite the mark for someone in only their second year.
Will Pickens make the Pro Bowl in his third year? It seems like he is on the right path, but let’s take a look at some similar year two wide receivers to see if we can back it up.
Since 1992, the first year that targets were tracked on Pro Football Reference, there have only been six Year-Two receivers to post 1,100 yards and 10.5 yards per target. Tyreek Hill, Torry Holt, Jaylen Waddle, Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace, and Pickens. Four of the five non-Pickens receivers made the Pro Bowl in their third year, with the only exception being Jaylen Waddle, who became an alternate.
Look at the list of quarterbacks those guys had too. Alex Smith, Kurt Warner, Tua Tagovailoa, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Three potential Hall Of Famers and everyone was at least league average at the time. That has not been the case for Pickens, and it’s impossible to argue he’s gotten even average quarterback production in his first two seasons.
Let’s take a look at perhaps George Pickens’ closest statistical comparison from that bunch in Tyreek Hill:
Hill: 73 receptions, 1,183 yards, 7 touchdowns, 40 first downs, 15.8 yards per reception, 11.3 yards per target
Pickens: 63 receptions, 1,140 yards, 5 touchdowns, 42 first downs, 18.1 yards per reception, 10.8 yards per target
Pretty close right? Not exact, and of course, they aren’t the same type of receiver. But it’s an encouraging sign, especially when you look at Hill’s Year Three:
Hill Year-Three: 87 receptions, 1,479 yards, 12 touchdowns, 60 first downs, 17.0 yards per reception, 10.8 yards per target, First-Team All-Pro
So what changed for Hill going into year three? It’s pretty simple. Patrick Mahomes became his quarterback. Despite his respectable career, Alex Smith was probably the weakest quarterback on the above list, and the upgrade did wonders for Hill and helped him break out.
While Pittsburgh certainly won’t be getting a Mahomes-level upgrade, it’s not much to ask for the quarterback play to get better in 2024. Pickens seems poised for a Pro Bowl season in 2024 regardless, but if there’s going to be a major breakout, it likely will be due to a new or improved quarterback.
