Buy Or Sell: Nick Herbig should take over the third outside linebacker role in 2024.
Explanation: The Steelers don’t currently need a starting edge rusher with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on the roster. The past two years served as a good reminder of how important quality depth is at the position, though. Markus Golden did a nice job on the whole taking the third-most snaps, but Nick Herbig also flashed as a rookie.
Buy:
First of all, this is not a question about overall depth. The Steelers really should have at least four solid edge rushers. But can Nick Herbig be that strong third rusher? Based on his 2023 season, absolutely he can. His per-snap production last year actually bettered that of T.J. Watt.
He played under 200 defensive snaps, and he still managed to record three sacks. And five tackles for loss. And two forced fumbles, one of which was part of a strip sack, which he recovered all by himself. The only thing he didn’t do was score on that play. I’m not sure how many people score on their own strip sack, though.
The Steelers knew what they were doing when they scouted Nick Herbig. He looks like the real deal, and in his second season, he should be prepared to take on a larger role. He may have to if they don’t re-sign Golden.
Sell:
The important thing to remember about per-snap production is that quantity matters. It’s easier to have a high rate of production with a low rate of opportunity. Just because you get three sacks in 200 snaps doesn’t mean you’ll get 15 sacks in 1,000.
And the concern about Nick Herbig coming out never focused on talent. Is he big enough, durable enough? It’s different playing 1,000 snaps a year, 50-60 snaps a game, compared to 10-15 snaps a game. You’re a lot fresher and so is your body.
Herbig only played 15 or more snaps four times all season. He didn’t record a sack in any of those games. He totaled one tackle for loss. Maybe he can handle that third rusher role with great success, but the Steelers should at least try to give him quality competition. That starts with re-signing Golden.
With the Steelers’ 2023 season in the rearview mirror following a disappointing year that came up short in the playoffs once again, it’s time to start asking more questions. Questions about the team’s future in 2024 and beyond. Questions about The Standard.
The rookie class of a year ago was on the whole impressive, but they need to step up into staple starters in 2024. And they likely need a strong influx of talent in both free agency and in the 2024 NFL draft yet again. In addition to a revisitation of the coaching staff.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
