Despite leading the NFL in sacks and outpacing Cleveland Browns DL Myles Garrett in several other key statistical categories, Pittsburgh Steelers OLB T.J. Watt is still behind Garrett in betting odds for the NFL’s Defensive Player of The Year award. Garrett comes in as a -200 favorite, while Watt is second at +210, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
In other words, betting $100 on Garrett makes you a $50 profit, while betting $100 on Watt would net you a $210 profit. It sure seems as if Garrett is going to win the award, despite the fact that Watt has put up better numbers this season. Watt has five more sacks (19 to 14), 15 more tackles (48 to 33), the same number of forced fumbles with four, and two more fumble recoveries. Garrett has a higher pass-rush win rate, but since Thanksgiving he has just one sack. If you can’t get to the quarterback, the ultimate measure of being a good pass rusher, you aren’t the better defensive player.
Looking deeper, Watt also has more pressures (50 to 37) and QB hits (36 to 30). The one thing Garrett has going for him is he’s the best player on a Browns defense that’s one of, if not the best, unit in the league. Being the best player on the best defense does count for something, but Watt has simply been so much better in every area that should matter when looking at the best defensive player in the NFL that it’s a little crazy to me he’s not the favorite.
It almost feels as if T.J. Watt fatigue is setting in from the national media. Watt’s been in contention for the award numerous times even though he’s only won it once, in 2021 when he tied the NFL single-season sack record. J.J. Watt has talked about how people get tired of greatness, and with Watt routinely playing like the best defensive player in the league (this year was the third time he’s led the league in sacks), people might be glossing over his greatness.
Garrett is crazy athletic and supremely talented, and he’s had a great 2023 season. It just hasn’t been as good as T.J. Watt’s. At this point, it feels like Garrett is going to win the award, but he isn’t so heavy a favorite where it’ll be a guarantee. NFL awards are voted on before the beginning of the playoffs, so there’s nothing players can do in the postseason to impact where they’ll end up, so we’ll find out on Feb. 8 at the NFL Honors show whether opinion has shifted in Watt’s favor or not.
