Even in non-blizzard conditions, a game that made you forget it was being played on a Monday afternoon with feet of snow surrounding Highmark Stadium, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ path and plan to upset the Buffalo Bills remained the same. A three-prong approach to win.
1. Run the ball early and effectively
2. Protect the football
3. Take the football away
They failed on all three accounts. It’s a minor miracle the game became as close as it was, Pittsburgh down 24-17 at one point, before Buffalo provided the dagger.
Run The Ball
At first glance, the numbers don’t look bad. Pittsburgh ran the ball 23 times for 106 yards, a respectable 4.6-yard average. But context matters. RB Najee Harris led the Steelers with 12 carries. But he finished with only 37 yards, an average barely over three yards.
The Steelers had moments of success in the second half. Jaylen Warren ran hard and was the more effective back of the two. But especially early in the game, Pittsburgh’s ground game was bottled up. Here are the rushing yards the Steelers gained on each of their first-quarter attempts:
1 yard
2 yards
3 yards
3 yards
1 yard
9 yards
Five of the six gained no more than three yards, all of which were unsuccessful. The first successful run, Harris’ 9-yard gain, didn’t come until the Steelers trailed 14-0. A poor ground game stuck Pittsburgh into third-and-long, a place no offense wants to be, especially on the road against a veteran Bills secondary that could dial up its pressure looks and disguises. Mason Rudolph had trouble reading the defense early, leading to mistakes and missed opportunities. By the time the running game found life, the Steelers had fallen behind and couldn’t run as often as they’d like. Their run-game substitute, screens and sprint outs, resulted in one of their turnovers, WR George Pickens fumbling the ball away, leading to Buffalo’s second score.
Protecting The Football
Officially, here’s the Steelers’ 2023 record (including yesterday’s loss) when they didn’t turn the ball over versus when they did.
When Pittsburgh Didn’t Turn The Ball Over: 6-1
When Pittsburgh Turned The Ball Over: 4-7
Of course, the better you protect the ball, the higher your odds of winning. True of any team. But it’s especially true for a fragile team like the Steelers. We’re not talking turnover differential. The math says if the Steelers gave the ball away even once, their odds of winning plummeted. When they had a clean sheet, their odds of winning were very high (their lone loss came to Cleveland in Week 11).
You know where this is going. A pair of turnovers against the Bills doomed the Steelers and made them play catch-up the rest of the day. Pickens’ fumble gave Buffalo a short field and an immediate score. Rudolph’s interception took points off the board. Both were killers.
Take The Football Away
If the Steelers are going to have a chance in games where they turn it over, they better take the ball away on defense. In the four games the Steelers did win in which they turned the ball over, they never lost the turnover battle. Twice, they won it and twice, they tied.
Monday’s result? Minus-2, two giveaways and no takeaways.
Even with Minkah Fitzpatrick’s return, the loss of T.J. Watt loomed large. Buffalo’s offense was and is more talented than Pittsburgh’s hurting defense. Factor in decent weather and the Bills had a clear advantage. To close that gap, the Steelers, as they had done throughout the year, had to create some splash.
They didn’t. Nor did they get all that close. Pressuring Allen didn’t pan out, they had two sacks but not much of a consistent rush with failed blitzes, and the turnovers didn’t follow. Allen didn’t come close to a pick, save for one tipped pass that fell incomplete with a couple of Steelers players nearby. Allen kept all his positive plays, three touchdowns and a grown-man 52-yard touchdown run, without any of the negative ones often associated with his play. Not going to beat him that way.
Add it up and it’s almost a surprise Pittsburgh didn’t lose by more. NT Montravius Adams’ blocked field goal prevented this one from becoming a laugher, turning a potential 24-0 game into a 21-7 one going into halftime. And the team settled down from there. But the damage was done. The Steelers fell behind, lost sight of their game plan, and the Bills’ talent won out.
