As we do every week to get you ready for the upcoming game, our X-factor of the week. Sometimes, it’s a player, unit, concept, or scheme. Here’s our X factor for Saturday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens.
X FACTOR: TE Pat Freiermuth
Tight ends have been hit and miss in Pittsburgh this year. More miss than hit, really. And Pat Freiermuth’s season hasn’t gone the way he hoped, the third-year man missing chunks of the season due to a hamstring injury while seeing inconsistent targets when he’s been available. Entering the finale, he has 30 receptions and under 300 yards, basically half the production he’s had in each of his first two NFL seasons.
But there’s a chance for him to end the year on a high note. Plenty of factors set him up for having a big game. Baltimore is unlikely to play much or any of its two stud linebackers, Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. Two guys they want and need healthy to make a Super Bowl run. Replacing them will be guys who haven’t played much football this year. Rookie Trenton Simpson and his 20 defensive snaps this season will be one of them while Del’Shawn Phillips will probably be the other. He has just 34 defensive snaps on the year, primarily serving as a core special teamer. That automatically makes that real estate easier and safer to throw on. In the secondary, S Kyle Hamilton will probably sit this one, taking extra time to rest the knee injury he suffered in Week 16. There’s zero reason to risk him in this game.
Beyond that, as we noted in our scouting report, the Ravens play a ton of two-high looks. That lends itself to the middle of the field and the seams opening up for a guy like Freiermuth. That’s how he found success in Week 12 against the Cincinnati Bengals, who came out playing a ton of Cover 2. Freiermuth finished that day with nine catches and 120 yards, as productive as a day as you’ll find for a Steelers tight end. It was more yards than Heath Miller have had in a single game.
The same circumstances are setting up here. The Ravens know how well WRs George Pickens and Diontae Johnson have played and their goal, on paper anyway, will be to take those guys away. Make someone else beat them. The pendulum will swing back Freiermuth’s way, just as it swung Pickens’ way when the Bengals opted to take away the middle and prevent Freiermuth from having a repeat performance in Week 16.
On third down and in the red zone, Freiermuth could become money. Don’t be surprised if he has another solid outing to cap the season and try to save his stats on the year to potentially receive a contract extension this summer, though he could bet on himself and look to have a full season worth of numbers in 2024.
