As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 18 game against the Baltimore Ravens.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Pat Freiermuth Makes Plays Down The Middle
Our X-Factor for today’s game, TE Pat Freiermuth, has a chance to put up a stat line similar to what he did in Week 12 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore will likely be without their top players down the middle of their defense: S Kyle Hamilton and LBs Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, among potential others.
Schematically, Baltimore likes to play a two-high shell and got chewed up by Miami down the middle last week, at least early in the game. With attention on WR George Pickens and his consecutive great performances, Freiermuth could be left alone down the field and between the numbers.
2. Steelers OLBs Make Plays (And Get Their Hands Up)
It’s not certain, but likely Baltimore will limit or not play their top two tackles, LT Ronnie Stanley and RT Morgan Moses. Assuming so, they’ll turn to backups Patrick Mekari and Daniel Faalele. That’s good news for Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt. The latter especially against Faalele, a mountain of a man but will have trouble with speed/edge rushes.
While that bodes well for Pittsburgh, it’s worth noting Ravens QB Tyler Huntley gets the ball out lightning quick, just over two seconds. With backup linemen in the game, Baltimore will have an even greater urge to throw in rhythm and get the ball out. In those moments, it’s hard to get after the quarterback so getting hands up in throwing lanes to bat passes will be important for the Steelers’ EDGE rushers and d-line.
3. There’s (Finally) Special Teams Splash
Pittsburgh’s return game has been lackluster for most of the year. Their longest punt return is 21 yards. Their longest kick return is 37 yards. With Baltimore’s depth and special teams stressed due to some of those guys seeing large and starting roles on offense/defense, there could be a chance for the Steelers to rip off a big-time play.
RB Godwin Igwebuike, to his credit, has had a solid couple of returns in the kicking game, and Austin has been hurt by punt returns negated by a penalty. It sure would be nice to see a field-flipping return they really haven’t gotten all season long.
THE STEELERS WILL LOSE IF…
1. Ravens’ Pass Rush Looks Starter-Capable
If there’s a unit that might mostly stay intact, it’s the Ravens’ D-line and EDGE rushers. Not as much depth there and backups to turn to so some of these guys might have to gut it out or at least play a partial role. Baltimore leads the NFL with 57 sacks this season and gets it from plenty of sources, not just one or two players.
The Steelers’ o-line remains a stronger run-blocking unit than they are holding up in pass protection, potentially making this an issue for the less-mobile QB Mason Rudolph.
2. Isaiah Likely Induces A Headache
Losing Mark Andrews earlier this year was a big loss for the Ravens, there’s no doubt about that. But second-year tight end Isaiah Likely has eased that pain. Since Andrews went down, Likely has caught 19 passes, averaging more than 15 yards per grab, and found the end zone four times. That included a pair of scores in Sunday’s AFC-clinching win over the Miami Dolphins. Pittsburgh has defended tight ends poorly for weeks, and Likely is going to be a frequent target of Huntley, especially on third down.
3. Baltimore Coaches Better
Baltimore has an excellent coaching staff. DC Mike Macdonald is one of the game’s top coordinators who should receive head coaching interviews this cycle. OC Todd Monken has proven to be the right guy for the job, while John Harbaugh is like Tomlin, always keeping his teams competitive and in the hunt.
While the Ravens won’t have their best players, they can make up for it with great scheme and overcome the personnel limitations. Could someone like QB turned gadget player Malik Cunningham come out of nowhere and make plays against the Steelers?
Prediction
Steelers: 24
Ravens: 20
Season Prediction Record
9-7
