The good folks over at Pro Football Focus do not believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers have any of the league’s most notable pending free agents for 2024. Not one Steeler is included on PFF’s list of the 150, meaning that the team’s most significant free agent, QB Mason Rudolph, is not among them.
In fact, the site did not even view him as the Steelers’ best quarterback. As was pointed out to me recently, the outlet graded Kenny Pickett as the overall better quarterback in 2023. Pickett received an overall grade of 70.6 and a passing grade of 68.8. They graded Rudolph at 64.8 and 64.8, respectively (yes, the same number).
So not only did PFF think that Pickett graded higher in general, it also graded his passing, specifically, as better. This, in spite of the fact that Rudolph was more accurate, completed a higher percentage of Big-Time Throws, and did a better job of escaping pressures rather than taking sacks.
So what happened, exactly? Well for one thing, they were only really impressed with one game. Rudolph received an 87.6 overall grade for the win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, with a passing grade of 86.9. Despite throwing for more yards with two touchdowns a week earlier, he only graded at 65.0 overall and 63.0 passing in his first start against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Interestingly, the site graded Rudolph better in 2020 and 2021 with scores in the mid-70s than it did for this past season. A comparatively awful game in the season finale against the Baltimore Ravens didn’t help. He had a 39.4 overall grade, dinged heavily due to fumbles, and a 46.2 passing grade.
PFF charged him with two Turnover-Worthy Plays in that game, and another in the postseason loss to the Buffalo Bills, as well as one in his first start against the Bengals. Aside from the lone interception he threw in the playoffs, the only one that stands out was a dropped interception against Baltimore.
He was most successful down the field with an 84.5 grade on passes of 20-plus air yards. He went 5-for-12 for 214 yards and one touchdown. His lowest grade was in the intermediate area at 56.6, where he went 12-for-21 for 327 yards and two touchdowns. He was only charged with on Turnover-Worthy Play in that range; it’s not immediately obvious why he was graded low in this area, looking at PFF’s data.
As for Pickett, his PFF numbers generally got better as the year progressed, his best game being the only one he started and finished against the Bengals after offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s firing. He had four of his 13 Big-Time Throws in that game, and he had only seven Turnover-Worthy Plays all season, just three after Week Two.
The outlet graded him north of 70.0 in passing in four of his six final starts that he finished, with pronounced dips in the two games preceding Canada’s firing. Still, even they graded him better in his rookie season of 2022 at 75.5.
Of course, what Pro Football Focus has to say is not gospel. I don’t think many will agree with the site’s grades, which draws the conclusion that Pickett was better than Rudolph. This is just one data point that will be largely ignored. Frankly, I was rather surprised to learn of it, and I don’t know how they would go about explaining it, but I would love to hear it.
