Some analysts might like the Pittsburgh Steelers hiring Arthur Smith. But there are two who decidedly do not. Covering the move on the Rotoworld Football Show, analysts Patrick Daugherty and Denny Carter trashed the Steelers’ choice to run their offense.
“I’ve never seen a less serious hire than going from Matt Canada to Arthur Smith…we found the only person uniformly worse,” Daugherty said.
It’s worth noting that Daugherty and Carter’s show comes with a fantasy football slant, but this was also a broader based discussion on how Smith will impact the Steelers’ offense in 2024. And if their skill players can’t get involved and make plays, it’ll be bad for fantasy owners and Steelers fans. Pittsburgh is in need of improving its scoring output, finishing well into the 20s as far as NFL rankings, in points per game each of the last three seasons.
Smith’s time in Atlanta didn’t offer much to believe a swift change is coming. After having success in Tennessee, the Falcons’ offense was average at best and bad at worst during his three years as the team’s head coach. Twice, the Falcons finished 26th in scoring offense with their “best” year coming in 2022, finishing 15th in the NFL.
“I thought it was a joke. I thought they were messing around when they said they’re interviewing Arthur Smith,” Carter said.
Smith was one of just three candidates the Steelers interviewed to be their next offensive coordinator and the only one who checked the “experience” box Mike Tomlin and Art Rooney II referenced throughout the offseason. Compared to most other teams, Pittsburgh had a very short list of candidates.
If there’s one thing Smith is known for, it’s his desire to run the football. As we covered in our deep dive breakdown on him this morning, his goal is to be physical and tough, even in his wide zone running scheme. And Carter gave Smith credit for that, at least to a certain point.
“We’re one year removed [from] 2022 [when] the Falcons were third in rush EPA and fifth in rushing success rate. So they have been good,” Carter said. “Last year was catastrophic after they drafted Bijan Robinson. Their rushing efficiency fell off a cliff with Bijan Robinson. I can’t really piece those two things together.”
In 2022, the Falcons led the league in rushing attempts while finishing third in yards, fourth in yards per carry, and third in rush EPA, as Carter mentioned. But despite using a premium first-round pick on Robinson, who was regarded as one of the most talented running back prospects in years, the Falcons’ rushing attack was far worse in 2023. They still ran heavily ran the football, third in attempts, but finished 17th in yards per carry while Robinson had just a 43.5 percent run-success rate. Of the 53 players with at least 100 rushing attempts, that ranked an ugly 43rd.
Daughterty and Carter’s concern centered on the Steelers’ lack of a passing game. Atlanta struggled to move the ball through the air, leading both to joke – mostly – that George Pickens won’t like playing for Smith.
“Should be good for Harris. Should be good for Warren. I will say George Pickens will probably leave the NFL before Week Eight,” Carter said.
Daugherty said there is “genuinely no point” in trying to play Pickens in Smith’s system. Under Smith, the passing game is spread around to multiple people and rarely are there two viable wide receivers on the field. There was A.J. Brown in Tennessee and Drake London in Atlanta but a steep drop-off in production with the teams’ No. 2 wideout. Perhaps Pickens can become what Brown was. An alpha receiver, strong after the catch, able to make game-breaking plays. But Smith’s track record looks spotty.
Ultimately, the biggest determination of Smith’s success will be quarterback play. For 2024, that’s the development of Kenny Pickett. And the two showed no belief in Smith’s ability to advance Pickett’s career.
“What trust do we have, what reason do we have to believe Arthur Smith can develop Kenny Pickett into a viable NFL quarterback?” Carter said. “No chance.”
Pittsburgh and Atlanta selected quarterbacks in 2022, the Steelers landing Pickett and the Falcons grabbing Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder later in the draft. Neither have panned out as hoped. Pickett didn’t make the second-year jump while Ridder has been wildly inconsistent. Pickett was benched by year’s end while Ridder was taken in and out of the lineup, rotating with Taylor Heinicke in what became an almost comical revolving door at quarterback.
Smith isn’t the Steelers’ most exciting hire. He’ll have to recapture the magic of his time as the Titans’ offensive coordinator after his failures while leading the Falcons. Given the Steelers’ tendency to hold onto coaches, arguably longer than they should, if Daugherty and Carter’s assessments prove true, it’ll be a long three years watching Pittsburgh’s offense.
