There’s no question that the Pittsburgh Steelers themselves are intently focused on their Wild Card game against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. However, people outside of the team can take time to digest the information we’ve learned from the 17 regular-season games of 2023.
Nick Shook of NFL.com released his final regular-season QB Index on Thursday, making sure to note that he evaluated each team’s “primary starting” quarterback, not necessarily the quarterback who started the season or the one who finished the regular season. That means he evaluated Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, and he did not rate Pickett very highly at 27th overall.
“This was not the sophomore season most expected from Pickett,” Shook wrote. “He’s not solely to blame – Matt Canada’s dreadful offense deserves a lot of it – but it’s telling that Mike Tomlin went with Mason Rudolph in must-win games in the final month of the season. Pickett’s future isn’t over in Pittsburgh because the sample size is too small, and the circumstances weren’t quite ideal. But the pressure is officially on, which might include a camp battle for the starting job next summer. If he wins it, he’ll need to produce, because he’s just about out of excuses.”
The Steelers’ offense was about as inept as an NFL offense could be under Canada, the team’s former offensive coordinator. Then there’s the fact that Pickett suffered two injuries that cut into playing time this season.
However, even when Pickett was healthy with Canada gone, he still was not producing at a high level. As Shook noted above, Tomlin and the Steelers turned to Mason Rudolph with Pickett sidelined after Mitch Trubisky fell flat in relief. Then even when Pickett was healthy, Tomlin stuck with Rudolph because the offense was producing at a level unseen previously this season.
For statistical proof, Pickett in 12 games completed 62% of his passes, threw for 2,070 yards at 6.4 yards per attempt, threw six touchdowns (and ran for one more,) threw four interceptions, and fumbled twice. In four games (three starts), Rudolph completed 74.3% of his passes, averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, threw for three touchdowns and did not throw an interception.
So Rudolph has been statistically better across the board while still protecting the ball. That doesn’t look good for Pickett. The excuse of being saddled with Canada as the offensive coordinator is already gone, and Rudolph didn’t have the benefit of getting starting reps throughout the entirety of training camp.
However, as Shook points out, Pickett is not going to be unceremoniously dumped by Pittsburgh this upcoming offseason. The team invested a first-round pick in him for a reason, and by all appearances, the Steelers still have confidence in him long-term. Plus, Pickett is only two seasons into his NFL career with only 25 games played. That’s not a whole lot of time to gather definitive data on Pickett’s ability to be a good NFL quarterback. He hasn’t been great, that’s for sure. However, his ability to direct fourth-quarter comeback wins is a point in his favor (six fourth-quarter comebacks and seven total game-winning drives in 25 career games).
Pickett will most certainly get a shot at competing for the starting position at a minimum. What the Steelers need to do is pair him and whoever else is in the quarterback room with a good-quality offensive coordinator who will endeavor to put everyone in the best position to succeed.
Then, and only then, will we truly be certain if Pickett can be a franchise quarterback or not. Because the Steelers have talent on the offensive side of the ball. If they get the offensive scheme and play calling straightened out, then Pickett will be out of excuses for his lack of production.
