Per a great discussion on the Terrible Podcast, I wanted to take a look at fumbles for NFL offenses. In Week 18, the Pittsburgh Steelers had a whopping six offensive fumbles.
Let’s look at how that compares around the league. Here are offensive fumble totals in 2023 by week:
Here we see a lot of interesting information. First, it’s clear that Pittsburgh’s Week 18 plummeted for its worst result of 2023.
Week Four in Houston was the next highest fumble total for the Steelers offense, which also had two fumbles on three other occasions. Those came in Week Eight against Jacksonville (loss), Week 13 Arizona (loss), and the previous outing against Seattle in Week 17 (win). 2-3 record in games with multiple fumbles on offense, which was actually better than I expected.
We also see multiple teams had five fumbles on offense in 2023, with Pittsburgh being one of eight teams to do so and the only team lucky enough to get a victory in a five-fumble game this season. Very encouraging for Pittsburgh to be on that side of the stat in the most important game of the year.
Of course, it is very important who recovered the fumble with how important winning the turnover battle is in the outcome of games.
Here are 2023 offensive fumble totals and lost fumble rates across the league:
Here we get great additional context to the previous view. Pittsburgh’s offense had 21 fumbles this season, which tied for 18th in the NFL, more than the NFL mean. The Steelers were one of the best and/or luckiest teams at recovering them though, with a lost fumble rate of 28.6 percent, which ranked third-best.
Better to be lucky than good as they say, and that sheds additional light on some close games that could have easily swung the other way.
Back to Week 18, Pittsburgh lost two of its six fumbles, a 40-percent rate, its highest percentage in a multi-fumble game this year. That emphasizes how lucky the Steelers were to get the win in Week 18.
Week 13 was the only other Steelers multi-fumble game that they lost, fumbling twice and losing one in the loss.
Now with 2023 context, let’s address the original question. When was the last time an offense had more than five fumbles? Carolina in the 2022 season, with six in Week One (loss). Not to excuse Pittsburgh’s most poor Week 18 outing in this regard, but figured I’d have to comb deeper to find such a game.
I took advantage of the large historical database nflfastR has to offer (1999-2023), to see how often offenses have fumbled five or more times. During that span, nine fumbles was the highest total, from the Cowboys offense in Week 12 of 2010 (loss). Dallas also holds second place, with eight offensive fumbles in Week 17 of the 2000 season (loss).
Fifteen teams in the span (24 seasons) have fumbled seven times in a game, and 35 occurrences when offenses fumbled six times. Pittsburgh’s six fumbles in Week 18 was one of 185 cases in that span.
So, Pittsburgh’s Week 18 game was not atrocious historically but of course way more than you’d like to see heading into the playoffs. Their 2023 season lost-fumble rate was third best in the NFL, and impressively ties for 32nd-best since 1999 (797 qualifying teams). The Steelers matched that mark in 2020 (lost Wild Card). Their best mark of the time frame was 2017 (25 percent), which ties for 11th with several teams, winning a playoff game but losing in the divisional round.
Considering the weather is expected to be a factor once again, here’s to hoping that is cleaned up in Buffalo, one of many factors that would aid a victory. If not, they better hope for similar luck that has gone their way this season.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
