With the 2023 regular season in the rearview, I wanted to look at some important data points, focusing on the AFC North. First, the divisional regular season records:
Three teams earned double digit wins and a spot in the playoffs, including the Steelers. Pittsburgh and Cleveland were each bounced in the Wild Card round, leaving Baltimore as the only AFC North team still swinging in the Conference round. They had the most wins in the NFL this season, and look to top Kansas City next.
Let’s dive into some data, with Expected-Points-Added (EPA = expected points before and after each play) for the AFC-North offenses (OEPA) by week:
Lots of great info, including Baltimore’s 12 positive OEPA performances, by far the most in the AFC North. The Ravens Week 17 56-19 blowout win against Miami topped the chart, and was the second-best OEPA game in 2023, only to the Miami Dolphins in their Week Three 70-20 blowout win on Denver.
Baltimore also had a fifth ranked OEPA in Week Seven, a 38-6 win against Detroit, who remain in the postseason. Five negative OEPA marks for the Ravens, and their worst outings coming in their two losses to Pittsburgh.
On the other end of the spectrum, we see the Cleveland Browns, who had just three positive OEPA games in 2023 (Week Three, Ten, and 16). Each led to victory, including Baltimore 33-31, and a fellow postseason team in Houston (36-22).
Cleveland’s first outing against the Ravens was another story, posting the AFC North’s worst OEPA number of 2023 in the 28-3 loss. Both matchups against Pittsburgh were below the line, splitting the series with a Week Two 26-22 loss, then eking out the 13-10 win in Week 11.
The Cincinnati Bengals missed the postseason, losing QB Joe Burrow to injury. They still had 10 positive OEPA outings, improving in stretches as the season wore on. The season opener was the second-worst mark in the division in 2023, a 24-3 loss to the Browns, and were also below the line in two losses against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers had 10 OEPA’s in the negative compared to seven positive performances. The strongest results came in wins with QB Mason Rudolph in Weeks 16 and 17, victories and only 30-plus games from the Steelers offense in 2023. All five game appearances for QB Mitch Trubisky resulted in a negative OEPA.
The Steelers worst marks came right out of the gates, with their Week One 30-7 blowout loss and Week Two 26-22 divisional win against Cleveland, landing in the bottom five results in the AFC North this season. In QB Kenny Pickett’s 12 games played in 2023, he had five positive OEPA marks, compared to seven below the line. 2024 is a huge year for him, and hopefully can get on the right side of this stat, as he aims to improve to this team’s franchise QB.
Here are defensive EPA results (DEPA):
Right away, we see Baltimore and Cleveland had dominant seasons on defense. The Browns Week Nine 27-0 shutout was the most dominant DEPA number across the league in 2023. Overall, 13-of-17 games were above the line, and their four below average defensive outings all equaled losses.
The Ravens matched in positive outings (13), with their best mark coming in the 28-3 win against the Browns (one of the latter’s below average DEPA outings). Big difference was coming away from those games with a 3-1 record, as the offense picked up the slack in each win, with the loss against Cleveland’s stout defense.
Cincinnati was very up and down to begin 2023 and largely below average following their bye week. In totality, seven above average DEPA games, compared to 10 below the line. 8-of-9 straight games were below average in DEPA, including two losses to Pittsburgh.
While the Steelers defense lacked elite individual game numbers, they posted 11 above the line outings, compared to six below average. They closed 2023 with their best mark against Baltimore, who sat several key players with the one seed locked up. Pittsburgh had a 2-4 record when the defense was below average, with wins requiring positive OEPA numbers.
This emphasizes the importance of EPA on both sides of the ball, and the room Pittsburgh has to improve to hopefully win their first postseason game since 2016 next year.
Next, success rates for offenses and defenses from nflfastR, which is defined as EPA > 0 for each play:
Cleveland was the best defense in 2023, at 35.1 percent. They were worst in the AFC North on offense though, with a 38.9 success rate that ranked 29th league-wide. Baltimore was the only divisional squad the land above the mean on both sides of the ball, with the NFL’s fourth-best offensive success (47.4 percent) and 40.1 defensive success (sixth). Their balance in each is a big reason they’re still playing in the 2024 postseason.
Cincinnati had the worst singular AFC North result, a 45.9 in defensive success that ranked 31st, but a much better 10th offensive rank. Pittsburgh ranked third in the AFC North in each, with an above average 41.1 defensive success rate (ninth), and just below the mean 42-percent offensive success (17th). This resulted in a -1.2 differential, the only negative number of postseason teams.
Now for a points view of offenses and defenses from Pro Football Reference:
Once again, the Ravens are above average in each, with an NFL best 16.5 PPG on defense and 28.4 on offense (fourth), for the best 11.9 differential of 2023. Pittsburgh had the second best 19.1 PPG on defense, tying for sixth league-wide. The visual unfortunately re-emphasizes the need to score more points moving forward, at a division-worst 17.9 on offense this season (T-27th).
Cleveland had 23.3 PPG on offense (T-tenth), while allowing 21.3 on defense (T-13th). Cincinnati scored 21.5 PPG on offense (16th) and allowed 22.6 on defense (21st). Both squads suffered injuries at QB similar to Pittsburgh, but got much better QB2 production than Trubisky, then an uptick on the scoreboard upon his benching for Rudolph.
Another key stat is turnovers:
Three AFC North teams land comfortably above the mean in both, and all four doing so on defense in 2023. Baltimore tied for the most takeaways (31), while having 19 turnovers (T-12th). Cleveland was second in the North and tied for fifth league-wide with 28 takeaways, but was by far the league’s worst in turnovers (37), more than double their divisional counterparts.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati land similarly, tying for the second-least turnovers league-wide (16), and the Steelers holding the slight edge with 27 takeaways (T-eighth). First view that Pittsburgh has been above average in both, and large part to their playoff trip. They were unfortunately on the wrong side of the turnover battle in the Wild Card loss, emphasizing the importance of the stat, and hopeful improvements in other areas as well.
Here are teams’ explosive plays:
This is a prime example of needed improvements for Pittsburgh, with 56 offensive explosive plays (T-23rd) and 76 allowed (29th). This resulted in another negative differential (minus-20), tied for second worst in the NFL. Big plays of course help with scoring as well, and needs to improve on both sides of the ball in hopes for a deeper playoff run in 2024.
Baltimore was again above average in both, with 75 offensive explosive plays (11th) and 59 allowed (T-ninth), tying for the fourth-best plus-16 differential. Cleveland allowed 63 on defense (T-15th) and 64 on offense (T-13th), for a plus-1 differential. Cincinnati was last in the AFC North in both, with 53 offensive (T-27th) and 82 on defense (31st), for the NFL’s worst minus-29 differential, a key number in missing the postseason.
Now third down conversions:
Above average in both are the Ravens, again, tied for eighth on offense (42.0-percent) and 36.4 on defense (seventh). Cleveland’s defense allowed a league-best 29.1 3DCR, but a much worse 31.6 offensive rate (29th). Pittsburgh was near the mean on defense (39.1-percent, 21st) and 36.6-percent on offense (22nd). Cincinnati came in at 37.6-percent on offense (T-19th) and allowed a 40.8 3DCR on defense, ranking a spot below Pittsburgh at 23rd.
Here’s red zone numbers:
Above average in both are Baltimore and Cincinnati. The former continues to lead the division, with the seventh best red zone offense and a second-best 40.8 RZSR on defense. The Bengals 59.6 on offense ranked 10th in 2023, along with 11th on defense. For how strong Cleveland’s defense was, they allowed a league-worst 71.4 RZSR, though on the least opportunities allowed in 2023, along with a 15th ranked offense.
Pittsburgh was the only AFC North team below league average on offense (47.6, 27th), with a much better fifth rank on defense (46-percent). Pittsburgh was the only playoff team below 50-percent on offense, a baseline improvement I’m hoping for in 2023.
And a favorite here at Steelers Depot, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A):
Baltimore, again. They had an NFL best 4.1-DANY/A, along with a third ranked 7.2-OANY/A, for the league-best 4.0 differential. Cleveland ranked second on defense (4.2), but tied for 27th with a 4.7-OANY/A. Pittsburgh had a respectable 5.8-DANY/A (T-13th), and their 5.6-OANY/A vastly improved with Rudolph to 21st. Cincinnati ranked 20th in OANY/A and 26th DANY/A.
Baltimore was above average in every aspect of today’s article, impressively, en route to the most wins in the NFL in 2023. This hammers the point that Pittsburgh needs to aim for more well-rounded play for deeper playoff aspirations, particularly on offense, with below average marks in all of these key stats aside from limiting turnovers. The defense was near of above average in all the data aside from allowing explosive plays, a big goal to improve in 2024.
Here’s a rank recap to close.
AFC NORTH RANKS-SUMMARY LEAGUE-WIDE:
