Today I wanted to look at how passing offenses have fared through Week 17, using success rates by down, game halves, and weekly views as well. Let’s jump right in.
First, let’s look at early down success rates league wide (with scrambles, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
- First Down Passing Success = A pass that gains 40 percent or more of the needed yardage.
- Second Down Passing Success = A pass that gains 50 percent or more of the needed yardage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers passing offense has been very good on first down, with a 57.1-percent success rate that ranks seventh in the NFL. Second down has been a different story this season, an issue across the board on both sides of the ball. Their second down pass success rate drops all the way down to 43.8-percent, 26th league-wide. Stark difference, but was encouragingly better in Week 17, with three-of-four second down opportunities successful plays in the encouraging outing.
Let’s look at late downs, where third and fourth downs that do not pick up a first down are considered a success:
Late down pass success has also been problematic in 2023, tying for 22nd at 32.4-percent. Unlike second down last game, this is an area that can improve from Week 17, with a 36.4-percent success rate. This included an aggressive fourth down fail, a sack, and other missed opportunities. Hopefully we see an improvement on money downs in the finale, which would also bode well to playoff aspirations.
Here are the total success rates, now that we’ve gained context by down:
In totality, Pittsburgh’s passing offense ranks 23rd in pass success rate at 44.2-percent. Second down and on are hopeful areas of improvement, with the most recent game leaving late downs as the biggest hopeful area of improvement.
I was also curious to see how defenses have performed by half:
Here we see half results have also been quite different for the 2023 Steelers. First halves have been a struggle, at 40.9-percent which ranks 27th in the NFL. After halftime, the passing offense improves to ninth league-wide, at a 47.2-percent success rate. If forced to choose one, I’ll take Pittsburgh’s second half results all day. Encouragingly, we’ve seen much better starts from the offense with Rudolph under center, aiding the two victories that will hopefully continue in Week 18.
To wrap up, let’s look at a weekly breakdown for added context:
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their best passing success rate of 2023, at a very strong 60-percent that was seventh best league-wide in Week 17. The only other 2023 performance that came close for the Steelers was 59.3-percent in Week 13, but resulted in an ugly 24-10 loss, when QB Kenny Pickett suffered his ankle injury early, and several successes including the lone touchdown coming in garbage time from Mitch Trubisky.
Pickett’s other games with above average passing success rates were Week Three, a good stretch from Weeks Seven-Nine, and his best game of the season by far in Week 12. Trubisky played the majority of the Week Eight loss (Pickett rib injury). So, when Pickett had an above average pass success rate (in full games), Pittsburgh has a 4-0 record. Six below the line games for Pickett this season, and the worst outings both coming against the strong Cleveland defense. They held Pittsburgh’s passing offense to 28.1 in Week Two and 22.6 in the Week 11 loss.
Trubisky also played limitedly to close the Week Four loss, the aforementioned Week Eight and 13 games, and started in Weeks 14 and 15. All five of those contests were losses, and both starts were below the line.
In totality, when Pittsburgh had an above average passing success rate, they went 5-2, and below the line performances led to a 4-5 record. Coming off their best passing success rate in Week 17 was huge and can hopefully take that momentum into the finale.
On the season, the Steelers have been strong on first downs (seventh) and in the second half (ninth) but underwhelming otherwise situationally. The weekly view gives us context to wins and losses and emphasizes a big reason why last game went so well. Rudolph certainly earned his third consecutive start and can hopefully lead the team to as many victories, and fingers crossed the postseason.
