As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 15 game against the Indianapolis Colts.
My prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Passing Game Floods Colts’ Zone
The Colts are among the NFL’s heaviest zone defenses. Lots of Cover 3 under DC Gus Bradley, with some Cover 2 and Cover 6 sprinkled in. You won’t find many instances of them running man coverage. For Pittsburgh, it means coming up with quality zone-beaters. The Colts aren’t hiding their plan, so the Steelers have to counter it well. Flood their spot-dropping zone with multiple receivers coming from different areas of the field, and this passing game will work. If not, it’ll be another struggle.
2. Turnovers Don’t Doom Them
Pittsburgh doesn’t win when they turn the ball over, even when they win the turnover differential. And it hurt them last week even though they tied with one takeaway apiece. Mitch Trubisky will have to take care of the ball, but so will everyone else. The Colts have forced an incredible 16 fumbles this year. They hunt for the ball. Receivers, runners, and quarterbacks have to be smart. Indy has 21 takeaways this year, the same number as the Steelers.
3. T.J. Watt Has A ‘Watt’ Kind Of Day
Expectations are set high for Watt. As they should be. So while it’s a little unfair to feel “meh” if he has just one sack, Watt is the kind of guy always capable of having a monster day. Since the bye week, Watt has just one game with more than one sack, the Bengals game, where he had a pair on QB Jake Browning. Watt also has just one forced fumble since Week One.
He’ll face a rookie right tackle today in Blake Freeland, an impressive athlete but tall (nearly 6-foot-8), when I watched him coming out of the draft, upright and stiff-hipped. Expecting Watt to use his dip/rip move a ton to get under him. Maybe he’ll even draw a holding call.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Colts RPOs Overwhelm
No one runs RPOs as often as the Colts. It really can be considered their base offense. They have a ton of variations in their RPO game and can run actual pass concepts off these looks, not just screens and quick slants. It’ll make rushing the passer hard to do consistently with fewer dropback opportunities. And for the offense, it’s supposed to always counter what the defense is presenting. QB Gardner Minshew knows how to run this system. He was with head coach Shane Steichen in Philadelphia last year, and he runs it effectively.
2. Indy’s Pass Rush Gets Home
If you had asked me to guess the number of sacks the Colts had this season, it wouldn’t have been 42. But they’re one of the top pass-rushing units in football, generating that production from a ton of different people. They don’t blitz often, but NCB Kenny Moore is still a top blitzing corner, and their D-line is deep and talented. Pittsburgh’s tackles will be in for a challenge, especially on third down when the Colts align as Wide 9 and stress the edges.
3. Defense Falls For A Trick Play
The Colts are known to have an ace or two up their sleeve. Recently against the Tennessee Titans, they successfully ran a reverse flea flicker for a huge 40-plus yard play. They’ve called a 4th down run to TE Kylen Granson. They do just enough to keep you on your toes. Pittsburgh better be ready. They haven’t had to face many trick plays this year.
Prediction
Colts: 23
Steelers: 17
Season Prediction Record
7-6
