As we do every week to get you ready for the upcoming game, our X-Factor of the week. Sometimes, it’s a player, unit, concept, or scheme. Here’s our X-Factor for Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals.
X-FACTOR: Najee Harris And Jaylen Warren
The X-Factors have gotten more obvious in recent weeks. That’s partially because of the Pittsburgh Steelers having a more favorable schedule, facing backup quarterbacks the last two weeks, and facing the 2-10 Cardinals this weekend. Don’t take that or any game for granted but you don’t have to search as hard to find a key element of the game.
Arizona’s defense has really struggled this year, and after losing ILB Kyzir White, their run defense has slipped even more. In last week’s blowout loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the Cardinals allowed nearly 230 yards on the ground. Arizona has given up at least 100 yards in seven straight games. Pittsburgh has run for 150-plus yards in their last four contests and has the running game humming as well as any time in recent memory.
All of that is to say what’s clear. Pittsburgh should be able to run the ball this week. For the first time all year, there are reasonable expectations that the Steelers can put up yards and points in this game. If they can’t do it against these guys, it’s going to be fair to wonder who they can put up numbers against. Though QB Kenny Pickett should be able to make plays through the air against an injured and youthful Cardinals’ secondary, the Steelers’ bread and butter will continue to be making plays on the ground.
Arizona plays a 5-1 front, and if the Steelers can break through that first level, there will be plenty of daylight. Two of the most powerful runners in football, at least by broken tackle metrics, against one of the league’s worst run defenses dealing with lots of injuries, though many of them are to the team’s secondary. Still, based on trends for both teams, there is a legitimate scenario where the Steelers run for 200-plus yards again, as they did against the Green Bay Packers. Run early, build the lead, and close out the game with Harris and Warren late.
Pittsburgh has found the right mix with both guys. It’s not either/or between those two. It’s both/and. Play both, keep the other fresh, and wear down the opposing defense. Harris and Warren might make plays in the passing game, too. Arizona is vulnerable to the screen game, giving up a touchdown to the Rams last weekend in addition to another long play. Mike Sullivan might hit them with some third-down screens to negate their blitz. The O-line’s protection is stressed a lot less if they’re pulling out into the flat to throw a block on a screen as opposed to trying to sift and decipher the Cardinals’ amoeba (one down DL) fronts.
Granted, sometimes the obvious matchup doesn’t play out the way you think. Arizona is keenly aware of the buzzsaw they could be running into. And like virtually every other team, even with the strides Pickett and the passing game made, the Cardinals’ goal will be to have the quarterback try and beat them. So maybe Warren and Harris don’t have monster days. At the least, they have to close things out. Close out possession downs on third and short. Close out drives around the goal line with touchdowns. Close out the game with a first down if it’s close (and it’s Pittsburgh so bank on that being the case). Close out another win and take care of business the way the Steelers have been. By running the heck out of the ball.
