As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 13 game against the Arizona Cardinals.
My prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Their Running Game Keeps Humming
Pretty simple equation. Over the last month, the Steelers have one of the league’s top run games. For the entire season, the Cardinals have had one of the league’s worst run defenses, a unit that’s gotten worse with injuries to key players like LB Kyzir White.
There’s every reason to believe Pittsburgh can and will have success up the middle behind Isaac Seumalo, James Daniels, and the inside hip of RT Broderick Jones. Count on the Cardinals doing their best to take away the run, but they’ve allowed their last seven opponents to rush for at least 100 yards, including 228 to the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. It’ll be disappointing if Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can’t rush for at least 125, if not more.
2. Kyler Murray Limited Off Boots/Play-Action
You can bet the Cardinals will look to get QB Kyler Murray on the move, especially against the Steelers’ potent pass rush. Play-action, bootlegs are a staple of their offense. Their offensive coordinator was in Cleveland last year and you see similar hallmarks of that offense. They want to get their quarterback on the move and though Murray tore his ACL last year, you wouldn’t know it watching him now. He’s running well, like he always has. Not only can the Cardinals out-leverage you with play-action but Murray can take off and run on the edges if everything is covered up.
3. They Tackle James Conner
Swarm to the ball. Always a goal for the Steelers and their run defense. But when you’re facing James Conner, you better bring a little extra. And you better bring some extra people. Conner is having a career year in terms of yards per carry, 5.1 this season, and he’s now healthy and running angry.
Of runners with at least 80 carries this season, here are the top three in terms of fewest attempts per broken tackle.
1. Jaylen Warren – 5.2
2. Najee Harris – 7.5
3. James Conner – 8.0
All three will be on the same field Sunday. Better rally and get Conner on the ground. It’s going to require more than one guy to do so.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Matt Prater Swings The Game Late
Talked about it throughout the week. Both these offenses’ best weapon might be their kicker. Chris Boswell is money for Pittsburgh. Same thing with Prater in Arizona. And the dude, even at 39, still has a massive leg. He has the NFL record with four career makes from 60-plus and he’s made six from 50-plus this year, including a 55-yarder last week that was wiped out by a holding call.
If this game is close, the Cardinals could win it from extra-long distance, even if Prater now has to kick in Pittsburgh. The stadium isn’t as daunting as it used to be.
2. Offense Can’t Handle Amoeba Looks
Kenny Pickett played well last week, but he struggled against pressure. The Cardinals can generate it with creative third-down looks. They’ll use the old Amoeba fronts similar to Dick LeBeau’s, defensive looks with one or zero down linemen. Everyone standing up, walking around, the offense unsure of who is blitzing and who is dropping. Pittsburgh will have to sort that out. The screen game is an effective counter.
3. Read Option Gives Steelers Fits
The Cardinals haven’t used Kyler Murray a ton in the designed running game but situationally, they’ll use it. Murray has three rushing scores already this season and he is used on the read option near the goal line, pulling a tight end across as an “arc” block to lead the way at the second level (there’s still a read player for the quarterback, to be clear). It could be an issue if the Steelers allow the Cardinals to get close to the end zone. There’s a lot Arizona can do to gain a step.
Prediction
Steelers: 30
Cardinals: 20
Season Prediction Record
7-4
