As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 16 game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Running Game Looks Like Week 12
Pittsburgh ran for 153 yards in their first meeting against the Bengals, key to their victory. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined to average more than five yards per carry. They’re going to have to do it again. The Bengals have one of the NFL’s worst run defenses in football and lost interior plugger D.J. Reader for the season in last week’s win.
No matter who starts at quarterback, the Steelers need to run the ball to have a fluid and even semi-effective offense and a chance to win. Running the ball between the tackles is a must.
2. Tee Higgins Is Bracketed
If there’s a bright spot for the Steelers’ battered secondary, missing their top three safeties, it’s that Bengals star WR Ja’Marr Chase is out of this game. It allows Pittsburgh to set their attention on WR Tee Higgins, just as they could Chase in Week 12 when Higgins missed the game due to a hamstring injury.
Higgins is less versatile than Chase, and CB Joey Porter Jr. should shadow him throughout. Bracket him, force the ball elsewhere, and make their other weapons make plays for QB Jake Browning.
3. Bengals Can’t Run Even With Their New Weapon
The Bengals couldn’t run in the first meeting. They barely even tried, opting against running into a brick wall. But since that game, they’ve gotten healthy. Speedy rookie RB Chase Brown is providing explosive plays for them in the run and screen game. Pittsburgh has a different element to defend beyond veteran RB Joe Mixon up the middle, who they should be able to handle well enough. If the Steelers can again make the Bengals one-dimensional, they’ll have a tough time winning this one on the road.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Pittsburgh’s Defense Fails To Take The Ball
Though the Steelers have two blocked punts over their losing streak, their defense has just one takeaway over the last three games. That’s not their winning formula. A huge reason why Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in Week 12 was because of S Trenton Thompson’s interception of Browning as the Bengals were in the red zone and about to take control of the game.
Pittsburgh needs at least one takeaway, but this season suggests they need more than that to win.
2. Outside Deep Shots Aren’t There
Sure, Rudolph is in at quarterback. But that doesn’t automatically mean the passing game is going to find its groove. While it’s frustrating the team seems so limited with how they want to push the ball, on the outside to their outside receivers, they still haven’t done a good job of that. Can Rudolph make a difference? He’s got a solid arm, and he’s accurate downfield, but the jury is out on how often and how effectively he’ll push the ball.
3. Secondary Is Too Static
While the Steelers’ corners are healthy, their safeties are a wreck. To the point some players aren’t even sure who is starting and playing this weekend. Beyond the obvious issue of not having the team’s normal talent, it also impacts the scheme. You’re more static when you have newer and younger players without the reps and trust. Meaning, that there’s less pre and post-snap rotation, and the coverage shells can be easier read by someone like Browning. And if he knows where to go with the ball, he’ll have a higher chance to succeed.
Prediction
Bengals: 23
Steelers: 20
Season Prediction Record
8-6
