Just a week ago, the Pittsburgh Steelers were 7-4 and facing one of the easiest remaining strength of schedules in the league. The winnable games on the Steelers’ schedule looked like they could provide a buffer to help propel the team to the playoffs. It wasn’t guaranteed, but statistically speaking it was pretty darn close. Heading into Week 13, the Steelers had a 79.2 percent chance at a playoff berth. The Steelers boasted a good divisional record and were 5-3 in the conference. Given the logjam in the AFC playoff field, the team was situated nicely with both their record and their potential tiebreakers.
Oh, what a difference five days can make. Following back-to-back losses to the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots, the Steelers’ chances have been more than cut in half. Going into the rest of the Week 14 games this weekend, the Steelers currently hold a 30 percent chance of making the tournament, per New York Times’ playoff machine. That is a 49.2 percent reduction in their chances, or a 62.1 percent falloff relative to their previous chances.
The most important game remaining on the Steelers’ schedule at this point is their upcoming Saturday game against the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 16. The reason being that the Colts are neck and neck with the Steelers in the playoff race. Even if they win this weekend to the Cincinnati Bengals, a Steelers victory next week would give them the same record as the Colts and the Steelers would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Based on the NYT simulator, a win over the Colts would put the Steelers right back up to a 55 percent chance to qualify. A loss would all but eliminate them from contention with an 11 percent chance.
The Steelers are temporarily on the outside looking in with the eighth seed but have a decent chance of temporarily being back in the top seven following this weekend’s games. If any of the Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, or Indianapolis Colts lose, the Steelers will be back in the field. The Texans and Browns are currently narrow favorites, while the Colts are narrow underdogs. The range of possibilities include exiting Week 14 with anything from the eighth seed all the way up to the fifth seed. Regardless of if every game goes against the Steelers this weekend, they are guaranteed back in the field with a win on Saturday over the Colts.
They still control their own destiny, though the margin of error is now extremely thin. It is also important to note that the four remaining teams on the Steelers’ schedule all have something to play for with playoff hopes still alive. It very well could come down to that final Week 18 game against the Baltimore Ravens on the road. And yes, the Steelers do still have a chance at winning the AFC North given the Ravens’ difficult schedule ahead. Hosting a playoff game is somehow still not off the table, though it is a tiny chance.
