The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as 2-point underdogs in Week 18 to the Baltimore Ravens, but the line has quickly moved in the other direction. As of the writing of this post, shortly after the Steelers’ Week 17 win over the Seattle Seahawks, the consensus is the Steelers being favored by 3.5 points, per VSiN.
With the Ravens winning their Week 17 game over the Miami Dolphins, they have secured the first seed in the AFC playoffs. They will get a first round bye, so this Week 18 game against the Steelers is inconsequential for them. Because of that, they will likely opt to rest some of their key starters, including but not limited to QB Lamar Jackson.
They will still put a competitive team out on the field. The 53-man roster limit in the NFL won’t allow for them to rest everybody, but the point remains that the Steelers will benefit from Baltimore resting of key players. This explains why the line moved so dramatically from plus-2 to minus-3.5 for the Steelers.
The over/under movement also reflects that oddsmakers believe the Ravens are set to rest key players. After opening at 44.5, the point total is now set at 37.5. There is no other reason for the over/under to drop so dramatically, especially given the Steelers’ recent success on offense and the Ravens’ 56-point performance in a blowout win over the Dolphins.
Entering the final week of the season, the Steelers are allowing an average of 18.9 points per game to opposing teams. This is the seventh-best mark in the league. The Ravens are allowing 15.4 points per game, which is the top mark in the NFL, so the defenses of both teams are playing into the over/under as well.
The Steelers and Ravens played each other earlier in the season in Week Five and the Steelers won that game, 17-10. In hindsight, that was one of the Ravens’ worst performances of the season. The 2022 season also saw the Steelers and Ravens play each other in the final week of the season and the Steelers won that game, 16-13, in overtime. Back in the 2019 season, the Ravens had clinched the first seed in the playoffs heading into their Week 17 game against the Steelers and rested some of their starters. Despite the starters resting, the Steelers lost that game 28-10. While the Steelers’ chances look good for Week 18 on paper, history says pump the brakes.
