As we’ve been doing for several years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the New England Patriots’ offense.
ALEX’S SCHEME REPORT
Patriots Run Game
If there is a part of the Pats’ offense that offers a glimmer of hope, it’s their running game. Though even that’s been reduced, New England now without RB Rhamondre Stevenson due to an ankle sprain suffered in last Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Leading the way instead will be Zeke Elliott. On the season, Elliott has 112 attempts, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a long of only 17. But he still runs with some power and leg drive.
WR Tyquan Thornton, a speedster from Baylor, had a 39-yard run last weekend. It came on 2nd and 4 from their own 26 in the fourth quarter. So be aware with that.
Overall, the Patriots are averaging 4.0 YPC this year, 22nd in the league. And they only have six rushing scores, tied for 25th in football. As you’d expect, their 21 runs of 10-plus yards are 31st in the league. Not many big plays to be found here.
Schematically, they’re a man/duo downhill type of running team most of the time. Some big people up front, guys like OT Trent Brown, OT Conor McDermott and rookie RG Sidy Sow. And they’ll run behind that right side. They also like to run what sorta looks like split zone but appears to be man blocking with the tight end, often No. 86 Pharaoh Brown, aligning in the backfield or off-ball and coming across on a designed insert block through the hole.
They do run plenty of power and pull to the boundary. They will also mix things up with tendency breakers like pulling opposite the way the back is aligned instead of the same side like you commonly see. An example.
In short-yardage situations, they will use a tush push with guys like WR JuJu Smith-Schuster pushing behind. They can also use old-school sweeps in these moments to push the ball to the outside, too.
Some other numbers from their offense. They’re averaging only 12.3 points per game, easily the last in the league. If that numbers holds, it’ll be the lowest output from an offense over a season since the 2011 Los Angeles Rams. They’ve scored no more than seven points in their last three games and have done so in five of their 12 games this season. No other team has even four.
They’re a bad third-down offense at 33.1 percent, 28th in the league. They are at least average in the red zone, 54.2 percent, good enough for 16th in the league. They’ve turned the ball over a lot, 20 times this season, with their minus-nine turnover differential 31st in the NFL. Only the Washington Commanders at minus-10 are worse. The Pats have turned the ball over at least once in 11 of 12 games this year.
Patriots Passing Game
New England has turned to QB Bailey Zappe, replacing Mac Jones. Zappe’s returns haven’t been any more promising, the Western Kentucky product completing exactly half his passes on 64 attempts in 2023. He’s yet to throw a touchdown and has two picks. Zappe has also been sacked seven times and a 10-percent rate, a couple points higher than Jones. Rookie Malik Cunningham is a running threat but has logged only six offensive snaps this season, all coming back in Week Six.
Their leading receiver is Stevenson with 38 catches, but he has already been ruled out for tonight’s game. WR Kendrick Bourne has 37 receptions and is second on the team with 406 yards receiving, second behind Demario Douglas (who won’t play against the Steelers due to a concussion). But…Bourne is out for the rest of the season due to injury so throw him out. Seven of the team’s 10 receiving touchdowns this season have come from Bourne and TE Hunter Henry. Bourne has four, Hunter has three. There’s also ex-Steeler WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, a full-blown possession receiver averaging an unhealthy 6.8 yards per reception on 28 grabs. His longest reception this year is just 20 yards. New England has no big-play passing game with just 22 completions of 20-plus yards, tied with the Las Vegas Raiders for worst this year. They also have just two completions all season of 40-plus yards.
As a collective, Patriots quarterbacks average just 5.9 YPA, 29th in the NFL. They’ve also thrown 14 interceptions, tied for second-most in the league. Bad numbers overall.
Similar to Pittsburgh, the Pats like to use spacing concepts on early downs to try to stay on schedule and get their quarterback into a rhythm. Harry concepts like what you see below, curls and Hank/over the ball routes.
They’ll use play-action off max protection and try to take shots on two-man route combinations downfield though success there has been minimal. They’ll also go empty and spread the field, often on WR bubble and tunnel screens or throw hot with the cornerback playing off. They are a heavy screen team overall, though as you’ll see below, many of these plays don’t end well. Running back screens have been a bit better.
My biggest concern is their tight ends, Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Given the issues Pittsburgh had against Arizona’s Trey McBride last week and the issues at ILB, given Elandon Roberts’ uncertainty, this is an area they should keep attacking. That’s what I would do if I was the Patriots.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Patriots week, Steelers fans!
It might not mean what it once did, but it will still be a big-time matchup Thursday night at Acrisure Stadium in prime time between two historic franchises.
The two teams just aren’t playing good football, at least on the offensive side of the football, though.
Somehow, the New England Patriots’ offense is worse than the Pittsburgh Steelers’. Many thought that wouldn’t’ be possible, but it is.
The Patriots can run the ball rather well, but the passing game is like watching a youth football team try to throw the ball. It’s a mess.
After Mac Jones was a dumpster fire for much of the season and had some of the worst interceptions an NFL quarterback could throw, the Patriots pulled the plug and have turned to backup Bailey Zappe.
Zappe isn’t much better, but he’s a bit more mobile and has better pocket presence, though he doesn’t have much of an arm.
He processes quickly though and isn’t afraid to make throws. That’s what stood out about Zappe compared to Jones on tape.
With Zappe, a lot of throws are going to be short and quick, much like they were with Jones under center. The Patriots want the ball out fast and will rely on a lot of screens.
There’s not much creativity in the passing game for the Patriots, which is saying something. It’s very bland and simple. But there’s a difference with Zappe operating it compared to Jones.
Good job here off play-action of Zappe stepping up, avoiding the rush, and keeping his eyes downfield. He throws a nice pass on the over route to DeVante Parker, who happens to be Zappe’s favorite receiver to target in the last few weeks.
The run game has been rather good for the Patriots this season, but without standout running back Rhamondre Stevenson on Thursday night, the Patriots will be a bit shorthanded. Good thing for New England though is that it has former All-Pro and Pro Bowl running back Ezekiel Elliott behind Stevenson.
Elliott is playing well, too.
He’s fully healthy and has a bit of burst to his game once again.
He’s been rather good in the open field, especially in the screen game. He has great contact balance, good vision overall and really runs hard, looking to dish out punishment.
Elliott has had good success in the past against the Steelers and will look to do that again on Thursday night, this time in a larger role with the injury to Stevenson.
Outside of Elliott, the Patriots have some pieces in the passing game, but the production hasn’t exactly been there.
Parker has been a big piece for the Patriots in recent weeks. He has 22 receptions for 264 yards on the season and had a season-high nine targets against the Chargers in Week 13.
Along with Parker, veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster is another experienced option for the Patriots. He has just 25 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown on the season, though he has struggled with injuries at times.
He’ll be making his return to Pittsburgh for the first time, and the Steelers know him well. Tough guy, football player, consistent guy.
Second-year pro Tyquan Thornton is a speed guy who can really take the top off of defenses and can also take a short touch and turn it into a long gain. He has just five receptions for 34 yards on the season since coming off the Reserve/Injured list, but he did have a 39-yard run last week against the Chargers.
New England has tried to get Thornton touches in the screen game, too.
You’re going to see a ton of screens from the Patriots on Thursday night.
At tight end, the Patriots utilize 12 personnel a ton. It helps that they have the combination of Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki complementing each other well.
Henry is the true in-line tight end, one who can more than hold his own as a blocker. He also has the athleticism to split out and make plays in the passing game.
Gesicki is more of a receiver than a tight end, which has made him an interesting fit in the Patriots’ offense. He has just 21 receptions for 182 yards and one touchdown on the season. The work in the passing game hasn’t been there consistently, but when he’s targeted, he makes plays.
Up front, the Patriots remain rather solid in the trenches. There aren’t many big names there, but they are a very solid unit overall, especially in the run game.
Here’s how I expect them to line up left to right on Thursday night:
LT — Trent Brown
LG — Cole Strange
C — David Andrews
RG — Sidy Sow
RT — Mike Onwenu
That interior duo of Strange and Andrews is really good for New England. Strange played very well against Pittsburgh last season, helping shut down Cameron Heyward. He’ll match up with the future Hall of Famer again.
Brown and Onwenu have had their issues in pass protection and will have their hands full against Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt. They are good in the run game, but they will have a tall task in front of them in pass protection in prime time.
On special teams, the Patriots are hit or miss.
Kicker Chad Ryland has been awful. Ryland has connected on just 12-of-18 field goals on the season. The Patriots liked him quite a bit in the draft, landing him in the fourth round out of Maryland.
That investment hasn’t paid off so far.
The investment in punter Bryce Baringer has paid off, though. The Michigan State product is averaging nearly 48 yards per punt and 28 of his 63 punts have been downed on the year. He’s a real weapon who can flip the field.
Ty Montgomery II, a veteran, will handle the kick-return duties. He’s not as explosive as he was earlier in his career, but he’s steady. With rookie Pop Douglas out for Thursday night, the Patriots will call on Jabrill Peppers and Miles Bryant in the punt-return game.
