As we’ve been doing for several years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the Indianapolis Colts’ offense.
ALEX’S SCHEME REPORT
Colts’ Run Game
The Colts’ run game is, of course, stronger with RB Jonathan Taylor, and it’s unlikely they’ll have him this weekend. But they’re used to playing without him, doing so for the start of the year and the past two games. Assuming he doesn’t play, the Colts will again stick with Zack Moss, who will be their lead back.
Since Taylor has been out, Moss has been a workhorse, logging 84 and 94 percent of the Colts’ snaps over the past two weeks. His production has been solid, averaging 4.3 yards per carry on the year. He has five rushing scores.
Overall, the Colts are averaging 4.1 yards per carry, about middle-of-the-pack league-wide. But they have 16 rushing touchdowns as a team, tied for sixth-most across the NFL. They can run the ball with or without Taylor, though they had a poor performance in Sunday’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Indy’s quarterbacks, rookie Anthony Richardson (out for the year) and Gardner Minshew have a combined seven rushing scores this year. Those guys can finish off drives near the goal line. Also, as a team, they have 33 runs of 10-plus yards, slightly below average across the NFL.
Their run game features plenty of zone runs, often to the boundary. Though I didn’t see it much on tape in the games I watched, I know there’s a history of them running wham blocks, too, ear-holing the three-tech as the linemen flow to the next level. Pittsburgh has added this a lot more to their run game arsenal this year, though they’ve backed off it the last several games. One example.
Of course, you have tons of RPOs. They can fit in either category, I know, but I’ll include them here. It’s a staple and base part of their offense. The times they’ll run them the most? On 1st and 10, especially the first play of the drive, on third and short, and near the goal line. Their RPO package is vast and varied, with a ton of different options. Zone runs, power runs on the ground game. Players running to the flat, curl routes, and bubble screens in the passing game. They have the trust in Minshew to pick and choose based on matchup and defensive look/structure and that can be a problem for defenses, seemingly always put in lose-lose situations.
Some examples of their RPO game. A run and a pass. And the clip above of the wham block was another RPO.
Other offensive stats. Incredibly, this is a top-ten scoring offense. They play in a lot of big-point shootouts. The Colts are averaging 24.2 points per game, eighth in football. That’s more than the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers. Indy has scored at least 30 points three times this year (Pittsburgh hasn’t done it once in more than a year), and they’ve scored at least 20 in 11 of their 13 games on the season. Good numbers despite struggling situationally. They’re 35.8 percent on third down (24th overall) and 53.5 percent in the red zone (18th overall). They’re also giving the ball away a ton. In total, 20 giveaways (tied-21st in the NFL) with a better +1 turnover ratio that sits just above average.
Colts’ Pass Game
Minshew Mania remains in Indianapolis, with Richardson out since early in the year. But he’s been fighting the good fight, and the Colts remain in the playoff race with a 7-6 record like Pittsburgh. On the year, Minshew has thrown 11 touchdowns to eight interceptions. Over his last four games, his numbers are a little worse, three touchdowns to three picks. His numbers are nothing special overall. As a team, the Colts have been sacked 30 times, a strong number overall that’s nearly among the top-ten fewest. And as a passing unit, they have 37 completions of 20-plus yards, 19th in football.
Their top target is WR Michael Pittman, up to 95 receptions for 984 yards and four scores. Rookie WR Josh Downs is having a good year with 54 grabs for 612 yards and a pair of scores, a solid option on third down, and a good route runner. Their big-play guy is Alec Pierce, averaging 15.3 yards per catch. They have a nice mix of body types and skillsets for the offense. Pittman is the well-rounded guy who functions as their X, their man cog, Pierce the Z, the big-bodied blocker who can win deep, and Downs as the F/slot who can separate and get open. Not a superstar here but a solid collection of names.
Tight ends have been giving Pittsburgh problems. The Colts don’t have a stud player, but Mo Alie Cox has height and athleticism with two touchdowns on seven grabs this year, scores from two and 35 yards out. Last year, Jehlani Woods gave Pittsburgh problems, but he’s been on IR since August.
For the last several weeks, I’ve written about and noticed a trend throughout the season. Teams, including the Colts, coming out in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) in a 2×2 set with Twin WRs to one side and the two tight ends to the other. Like this.
A “run side” and a “pass side.” Force the defense to travel the corner or walk the safety down and declare what side they’re going to shift to. Coupled with the Colts’ RPO game, it’s an effective look. Pittsburgh at least benefits by having someone like Patrick Peterson, comfortable over the slot as opposed to past years when the Steelers’ outside corners were strictly outside guys, which made this harder.
Conceptually, a lot of in-breaking routes. The Colts are the opposite of the Steelers – they love attacking between the numbers. Digs and crossers and slants galore.
Also a lot of switch and wheel, post/wheel combinations. Sometimes the Colts’ spacing looks messy, but they do like these concepts. You see the one against the Tennessee Titans off a reverse flea flicker, too. Pretty neat.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Colts week, Steelers fans!
With it comes a must-win game for both teams as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for a 4:30 p.m. showdown against the Indianapolis Colts in a key game for the AFC playoff picture between two 7-6 teams.
The Colts, under head coach Shane Steichen, are largely playing good football since losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson in October to shoulder surgery. Though they are coming off of an ugly loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14, the Colts are a dangerous team offensively under backup quarterback Gardner Minshew thanks to a strong supporting cast and an offensive-minded head coach in Steichen who does a great job of calling plays.
Minshew spent a few seasons in his system while in Philadelphia and has really played well so far this season for the Colts. He’s thrown for 2,524 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions on the season, and he’s taken more deep shots in recent weeks, especially to second-year receiver Alec Pierce, who is coming on strong in the last two weeks.
Minshew doesn’t have the strongest arm, but he throws with good timing and overall anticipation and is very accurate down the field. The production he’s had targeting Pierce downfield in recent weeks is rather eye-opening and is undoubtedly going to be something the Colts look to do on Saturday.
Minshew adds a dimension as a runner, too, having added three rushing touchdowns this season for the Colts. He’s not a truly designed runner like Richardson once was, but he can make plays with his legs when things break down and brings real toughness to the position for Indianapolis.
He’s great in the quick game, too.
Great ball-handling here from Minshew, a good throw under pressure, and a big gainer.
He really thrives when the lay breaks down, too. The accuracy is impressive when under duress.
Perfect ball placement where only his tight end can get it. Big gain.
Minshew has plenty of weapons to work with in the passing game. Pierce is the deep-ball threat, but Michael Pittman Jr. is the No. 1 receiver in Indianapolis.
He’s a physical receiver, one that thrives at the catch point, and he’s difficult to bring down after the catch, too. He has a great feel for finding the soft spots in coverage as well and never feels out of control or rushed in his routes.
He’s a strong route runner, too, knowing how to sell fakes, manipulate defenders, and simply get open, much like he did on the game-winning 4-yard touchdown catch against the Tennessee Titans in Week 13.
The chemistry and trust between Pierce and Minshew are very noticeable, too. That’s huge for the Colts’ offense, especially as defenses are starting to roll more coverage toward Pittman.
Rookie Josh Downs is having a strong season, too, for the Colts. He’s become a very reliable slot receiver in Indianapolis, one that has some wiggle after the catch. He has great hands, too, and has made a number of big plays for Indianapolis throughout the season.
He’ll have a favorable matchup in the slot.
Tight ends have been used heavily in recent weeks for the Colts, from Will Mallory to Mo Alie-Cox.
Mallory has been a real weapon for the Colts in recent weeks. He has nine receptions in the last three weeks and is becoming a trusted pass catcher for Minshew. He had five catches just last week against the Bengals, and with the Steelers having issues against the tight end position this season, he could be in line for another strong day.
Alie-Cox is the blocking tight end of the group, but he’s a physical specimen in the passing game, one that is largely underutilized. But when they dial up his number, great things happen.
At running back, without Jonathan Taylor for the third straight week, the Colts will lean on Zack Moss, who was acquired last season for Nyheim Hines from the Buffalo Bills. Moss has had a great season, rushing for 751 yards and five touchdowns on the season.
He held down the starting role for the Colts without Taylor at times this season, shining in extended action. He’s a guy I really liked coming out of Utah. Great contact balance, runs hard, elusive.
Home run threat, too.
Going to really be a challenge for the Steelers in the tackling department on Saturday.
Behind Moss, the Colts will call on Trey Sermon and will likely elevate one of Tyler Goodson or Zavier Scott from the practice squad.
Up front, the Colts will be without standout right tackle Braden Smith due to a knee injury, but the Colts are really solid in the trenches. Here’s how I expect them to line up left to right on Saturday:
LT — Bernhard Raimann
LG —Quenton Nelson
C — Ryan Kelly
RG — Will Fries
RT — Blake Freeland (rookie)
Nelson remains one of the very best guards in football, right there with Dallas’ Zach Martin. He’s a future Hall of Famer and is a true game-changer in the trenches. Mauler in the run game and really physical in pass protection. He’s the key cog to the Colts’ offensive line.
Kelly is a Pro Bowl-caliber center and is getting back to form after returning from injury a few weeks ago. When he’s on, there are few centers better in the NFL.
Raimann has come on strong. He’s allowed 28 pressures and four sacks on the season in nearly 800 snaps. Still raw overall, but playing extremely well next to Nelson. Fries is a durable, versatile guard that is a great developmental piece for the Colts coming out of Penn State as a sixth-round pick a few seasons ago.
Freeland is a great athlete on the offensive line, but he’s had struggles this year, allowing 31 pressures and two sacks in just over 300 snaps. He’ll see T.J. Watt on Saturday.
Special teams is a strong group for the Colts. Indy blocked two punts against the Titans two weeks ago and returned one for a touchdown. They are dangerous under special teams coordinator Brian Mason.
Kicker Matt Gay is as solid as they come. He’s 23-for-28 on the season with a long of 57 yards. Big leg and can hit from anywhere near the 40 and in at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Punter Rigoberto Sanchez quietly remains one of the best punters in football. He’s averaging nearly 48 yards per punt on the year, with 18 punts downed inside the 20-yard line, and has a long of 69 yards. Huge leg.
Isaiah McKenzie handles the kicks and punts. He had a 42-yard kick return against the Titans a few weeks ago to open the game, setting up a quick touchdown. He has a 32-yard punt return on the season, too.
The Colts are very dangerous on special teams. That’s an area that could swing the game, especially with the Steelers’ struggles in that area so far this season.
