There are an array of issues that can be discussed from the Pittsburgh Steelers catastrophic three game losing streak. I wanted to look at something the team has leaned on as a driving force in hopes of victory, the turnover battle. Today I’ll look at and provide turnover differential data, which is takeaways (defensive turnovers) – giveaways (offensive turnovers) for the season, along with a weekly view to see trends and game outcomes.
Here’s a view of this season in totality:
Here we can see Pittsburgh is a top five team on the year in turnover differential, at +7 which ranks fifth in the NFL. On the whole that sounds impressive, but we’ll see on this weekly view that it has played a big factor in the outcomes of games for this team:
What jumps out right away for Pittsburgh is all seven victories in 2023 have included turnover differentials at or above the line, and Week 15’s loss last week the worst performance of the season (-3 turnover differential).
This included three giveaways against Indianapolis, a two-interception outing from QB Mitch Trubisky that resulted in his benching, along with a fumble turnover by RB Najee Harris in the 30-13 loss. On top of that, the Steelers’ defense was unable to provide a takeaway, which is only the third time this season. The others were the Week Four blowout loss to Houston (30-6), and the other losing in Week 13 against Arizona (24-10). So, when the Steelers defense doesn’t get a takeaway, it’s equated to multi-score losses.
Prior to the bye in Week Six, the turnover differential was big in outcomes of games, with positive numbers on their three wins, including their best +3 differential in the Week Three 23-18 win against the Raiders. No giveaways, and three takeaways via interceptions – two from CB Levi Wallace and another from CB Patrick Peterson. All four of QB Kenny Pickett’s interceptions occurred the first four games of 2023, three coming in Pittsburgh’s losses in Weeks One and Four.
Post-bye, Pittsburgh had five straight positive differentials en route to a 3-2 record, highlighted by a +2 in Week 10 win against Green Bay (23-19). Two takeaways on interceptions from safeties Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal. This was Neal’s last appearance (injured reserved/ribs), and the Steelers are perilously thin at safety. Kazee is suspended for his hit that got him ejected last week, along with star Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), and Trenton Thompson (neck) both injured and out this weekend.
The last four games have been painful, with a 1-4 record, and at or below the line in turnover differential. Week 12 against Cincinnati was the only victory (16-10), with a zero differential on one takeaway (Thompson’s interception) and a giveaway. The latter was on a red zone fumble turnover by Jaylen Warren, the famous questionable effort play from WR Diontae Johnson.
Pittsburgh’s defense has no multiple takeaway games the last five weeks (five previously), including two outings with none (Weeks 13 and 15), and was compounded by Trubisky throwing three interceptions in the last two losses. While circumstances haven’t been ideal, it’s been a recipe for disaster, and the downward spiral in the ultimate goal of winning.
Mason Rudolph will start Week 16 and with that hopefully comes better ball-security. While the defense has been hit hard by injury, here’s to hoping they can provide at least on takeaway, which has occurred in every Steelers victory in 2023. Knock on wood, Pittsburgh gets things back on track in the turnover department, with a zero turnover differential or better, which would bode well to the obvious hope of getting back in the win column.
Up next is a tough AFC north matchup in these terms against the Bengals though, who rank second in turnover differential this season (+11), with 23 takeaways (T-sixth) and 12 giveaways (T-first). In the first divisional showdown in Week 12, each team had a takeaway and a giveaway, ultimately resulting in a Steelers win.
Here’s to hoping Pittsburgh can sweep the Bengals and write the ship to move past this horrid losing streak, which would likely occur with an improvement in the turnover battle.
