Today I wanted to dive deeper into some of the reasons the Pittsburgh Steelers have struggled to open games, as I’m sure many of you have wondered as well. There are many issues when combing through data, and found this key problem: second downs in the first half.
Here are teams expected points added (EPA = expected points before and after each play, measuring its impact on the scoring potential of the drive) in that situation on offense:
Here we see the Steelers offense is one of the worst teams in the NFL on second down in the first half (31st), with a pass EPA that ranks 29th, and a run EPA that ranks next-to-last. This is obviously leading to less-than-ideal situations on late downs, and stalling drives with the worst three-and-out rate in the NFL, particularly on opening drives at a whopping 63-percent (only offense above 60, just five teams at 50-plus).
Of course, the same could be true for first downs, negatively effecting Pittsburgh’s offense on second down. Overall, that point is fair indeed, with the Steelers 25th EPA rank on offense (run and pass plays). Pittsburgh’s EPA has been a bit better running on first down in the first half, with a 21st ranked EPA and gaining an average of 3.9 yards (24th), compared to passing (EPA-24th, 5.1 yards gained-26th).
This has set the offense up for an average yards to go of 7.8 yards (21st-most) on second down in the first half. More painful, and the bigger issue, is gaining only 3.3 yards which is third worst in the NFL (30th). That low rank, along with being 31st in run EPA on second down in the first half, are crucial (of many issues) to improve upon and hopefully start extending drives on offense early in games.
Now for defenses:
Unfortunately, we also see that second downs in the first half have been problematic for the Steelers defense: ranking 23rd in pass EPA, 27th against the run, and an overall 28th EPA rank.
For context, Pittsburgh’s defense has fared well on first down in the first half, ranking an impressive third overall in EPA. They’ve been particularly strong with a matching rank in pass EPA, and are 16th against the run. The latter is the bigger issue on first half second downs as well, so hopefully early down run defense in the first half will improve moving forward. From a yardage standpoint, 4.2 average yards gained against the run (13th), 6.2 passing yards (12th), and ninth overall at 5.2 on first half first downs.
This provides more context to their second down situations in the first half, with the opposition averaging just over eight yards to go (fifth-most) encouragingly, but gaining 6.1 which is third-worst in the league (30th). This is a painful spread, setting up tough money downs overall. Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in EPA on first half third downs, not ideal, but isn’t terrible considering the second down results.
To close, here is a table of Pittsburgh’s first half EPA ranks by downs and play type to further illustrate the second down woes:
There are many elements of the game that Pittsburgh needs to improve upon in the first half, offensive passing regardless of down for example. We can clearly see that second down is a universal issue on both sides of the ball though, which will hopefully improve quickly and also set the team up for much needed improvements on third down as well.
