It’s no secret that protecting the football leads to winning football games. It’s important for every team in the league to not turn the ball over, but I’d argue it is particularly important for a team like the Steelers.
The Steelers’ offense has had its moments this year for sure, but they rank just 28th on the season in yards per game. Not exactly anything to write home about. This fundamentally changes the formula that the Steelers use to win games. The defense has been awesome as we all know, but even they can only do so much.
Pittsburgh simply can’t afford to turn the ball over really at all. They just don’t score or move the ball at nearly a high enough volume to ever make up for it. It’s almost like the defense has to pitch a shutout every game, and turning the ball over throws a runner on second base with no outs, it makes everything so much tougher.
Let’s take a statistical look at this. This season, the Steelers are 3-0 when not turning the ball over and 2-3 when turning it over. But obviously, they are going to be better when they protect the ball right? We need to look at this compared to the rest of the league to get a real grasp of how much it helps them specifically.
Since 2019, the Steelers are an incredible 19-2 when not turning the ball over. Their only two losses were in Week 11 of 2022 to the Bengals and in Week 11 of 2021 to the Chargers. Coincidentally, these are the two most recent games where the Steelers have put up 30 points, win or lose. So over the last five years, if the Steelers have zero turnovers, they either win or put up 30. Not a bad deal. Their .905 winning percentage in these games ranks third in the league in that span, behind only the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. This season, they’re 3-0 in games when they don’t turn the ball over.
However, when the Steelers do turn it over, they are a meager 24-28-1, for a winning percentage of .462. And while it’s natural that number would go down from the sterling .905, it especially goes down for the Steelers. They rank just 14th in the league in win percentage in these games.
Now there’s a bit of a confirmation effect here, as when the Steelers get behind early, they need to take more risks to get back in the game which would lead to turnovers. But this almost proves the point, this is not a team that’s built to bounce back from a 14-0 deficit and win a 35-31 shootout. They need to stay ahead of the chains in both a literal and metaphorical sense if they want to win.
For the mixed bag of results Kenny Pickett has produced this season, he’s done a good job with this. He’s top ten in the league in interception rate and hasn’t thrown one since that ugly Week Four Texans game.
Without the offense firepower to compete with the big guns in the NFL, the Steelers have to play mistake-free ball to win. There’s just no other formula for them right now.
