As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Nine’s game against the Tennessee Titans.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. They Defend The Playaction Crosser/Deep Throw
Titans QB Will Levis’ strong debut happened in large part due to play-action. The stats look nice, four touchdowns, but Tennessee didn’t ask him to do much. Lots of handing the ball off, short/quick/screen game, not many true dropback passes, and a lot of play-action with max protection where Levis could fling it deep and let WR DeAndre Hopkins come down with it.
Playaction figures to be a big part of the Titans’ gameplan and passing game this week and Pittsburgh has to be disciplined to stop it. Force Levis to work out of the traditional dropback game and he won’t look like the same quarterback he was against the Titans.
2. The Interior O-Line Plays Well
Bouncing off yesterday’s X-Factor post. The Titans have a strong defensive line and a tough run defense, allowing under four yards per carry, highlighted by star DT Jeffrey Simmons. He’s their Cam Heyward. Pittsburgh’s guards, Isaac Seumalo and James Daniels, and center Mason Cole have to handle the middle and get a push up front for the Steelers’ run game and by extension the offense to succeed. Pass pro has to be cleaner too and they have to communicate better on stunts and blitzes. Too many free runners.
3. Defense Makes Splash
Though I took issue with Mike Tomlin’s point about the Steelers’ three takeaways not “teeing up” the offense, I understood his point. This offense needs all the help they can possibly get. So the defense being able to make one of those hyper-opportunistic plays is certainly helpful even if it’s sad that it feels required. Against a rookie quarterback, there’s a chance for that type of play. Levis fumbled six times over his final two years with Kentucky and he never had a great TD to INT ratio, though he played in the tough SEC.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Titans Punting Wins Out
Tennessee’s best offensive weapon might be punter Ryan Stonehouse. Or at least he’s right up there. After setting the NFL record for punting average as a rookie, he’s still averaging 51.8 yards per boot as a sophomore, second in the league. Pittsburgh’s Pressley Harvin III hasn’t found that kind of consistency and rarely that upside and has been ripe for criticism from Mike Tomlin. Stonehouse is a field flipper. The goal is to reduce his net punting with returns by WR Calvin Austin III while Harvin needs to be at his best, especially on pin-deep/coffin corner punts, where he has been at his most effective.
2. They Don’t Swarm Derrick Henry
Meaning, they need to swarm RB Derrick Henry. It’s old hat to say “run defense is an 11-man job” but you better believe it is true against a bruising back like Henry. He’s not just a power runner either. There’s speed and burst and if he gets into the second level and space, look out. There’s no Minkah Fitzpatrick to help either and he’s spent a ton of time this season in the box. Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal can’t miss tackles and I’m worried about the overall safety play against Henry and in the passing game (especially when the Titans use Twin WR sets, where Pittsburgh usually won’t travel their corners and ask a safety to come down or walk out their OLB).
3. Third Down Improves
Pittsburgh’s third-down offense has been woeful the last two weeks. Against the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars, the Steelers are a combined 7-for-24 on third down, under 30 percent. That’s why they’re not scoring points, not sustaining drives, and not possessing the football. They must be better on third down. There’s no getting around it.
Prediction
Steelers: 24
Titans: 17
Season Prediction Record
4-3
