As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Ten’s game against the Green Bay Packers.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens Take Over
Matchups Dave Bryan and I have talked about all week. The Packers are likely to be without top CB Jaire Alexander, leading to rookie and young starters on the outside for Green Bay. Johnson and Pickens have the clear matchup advantage, and this is a Steelers team who loves to throw outside the numbers. Those guys have to come up large and make plays to drive this offense.
2. Defense Makes Splash Plays Against Jordan Love
Love and QB Kenny Pickett may be in somewhat similar situations, young quarterbacks trying to figure it all out, but there is one clear difference. Love has struggled to take care of the ball while it’s one of Pickett’s best traits. Pickett has a top-10 interception rate (as in, among the lowest) while Love is bottom-five in that stat.
And while Love doubles Pickett’s passing touchdowns, half of his 12 came over the first two weeks. Since then, he and this Packers offense has cooled off. Pittsburgh’s defense takes the ball away as much as any unit in football and it’d be a disappointment if the Steelers didn’t keep that trend going today.
3. Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon Are Contained
An obvious point but both teams want and need to run the ball. For Green Bay, that’s through RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jones is more of a space player and receiver while Dillon is a hammer as one of the league’s biggest backs. The Packers utilize both well and will log snaps out of Pony with both players on the field. Getting the Packers behind the sticks and putting the ball in Love’s hands will go a long way to keeping their scoring down and letting the pass rush and secondary make big plays.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Packers Skill Players Prove To Be Too Athletic
Green Bay has one of the youngest offenses in football and it is very much trying to find its way, starting with QB Jordan Love. But it’s an athletic group with playmakers who will get better with experience. One of the Steelers’ biggest concerns is a lack of athleticism in the secondary, especially with Minkah Fitzpatrick missing his second game. Besides CB Joey Porter Jr., this group doesn’t run well.
The Packers have more far weapons than the Titans, who just had WR DeAndre Hopkins, and they have guys who can run. Second-year WR Christian Watson is a big-play machine and true deep threat. Rookie Jayden Reed is versatile and exciting while rookie TE Luke Musgrave was one of the top tight ends in a rock-solid class, scoring his first NFL touchdown last weekend. If Love can get them the ball, this group can make splash plays.
2. Packers Line Stunts Ruin Steelers’ Blocking Scheme
Green Bay is an aggressive and slanting defensive line. They shoot gaps and utilize run stunts to create penetration and mess with opposing blocking schemes. Pittsburgh has had trouble with these fronts this year, the San Francisco 49ers in Week One particularly stick out, and running zone schemes could cause problems for the Steelers. The Packers could mess up that track. And Pittsburgh so clearly needs to have a run game, even if Green Bay’s secondary is banged up and looks weak.
3. Special Teams Advantage Goes To The Pack
The Packers have a strong special teams unit. They’re one of the best return teams in football with All-Pro CB Keisean Nixon, leading the NFL with a nearly 26-yard average this season. And he’s an aggressive returner. They’ve also blocked a pair of field goals this year, including one by, no joke, their left tackle. Danny Smith’s unit can’t get outclassed here.
Prediction
Steelers: 24
Packers: 16
Season Prediction Record
5-3
