As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Ten’s game against the Green Bay Packers.
My prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Defense Has Rush Lane Integrity On Third Down
Though the Browns are downgrading from Deshaun Watson to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, there is one key concern with DTR starting. His legs. I don’t want to doubt his arm, it’s live and strong, but he could do his biggest damage with his legs. Young quarterbacks like him are more willing to run the football and I doubt the coaching staff will mind. Better to run than throw and risk a pick. He’s a guy you have to think about on third down. Playing more zone than man to keep vision on the ball (both for scrambling and his ability to extend the play, requiring the secondary to plaster) and you have to rush smart to keep him in the pocket.
It might be harder for Alex Highsmith to use his inside spin at the chance of allowing Thompson-Robinson to escape to his left. Not saying he can’t but it’s something you have to think about. DTR could burn Pittsburgh in key moments, especially a Steelers’ defense who has been poor on third and long.
2. Steelers Receivers Win Outside And Vertical
It’s unlikely either offense is able to go on long and crisp drives against these defenses (and with these offenses). Instead, big plays are going to be the ticket. Against a Browns’ defense that’s likely to play eight in the box and stop the run, a reasonable gameplan, That should leave WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens 1v1 on the outside against the Browns’ talented corners. Matchups QB Kenny Pickett is most confident taking. Can those guys make a play, backshoulder and true go-balls? They’ll need to.
3. They Aren’t Fooled By A Trick Play
The Browns are obviously going to come out and run the ball. It’s their personality regardless of who the quarterback is. But I don’t expect them to be incredibly conservative with their offense either the way, say, Arizona was with Clayton Tune in his lone start (which came against the Browns).
Empty sets could be an issue against this defense but trick plays have to be considered. In Week Four, Thompson-Robinson’s lone start prior to today, they ran some trick plays. Most notably, a fake TE sneak that pitched the ball to DTR who fired the ball downfield, drawing a penalty. Head coach Kevin Stefanski is aggressive by nature and I think he’ll reach into his bag of tricks having a full week knowing Thompson-Robinson is his quarterback and gotten all the reps throughout the week.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Changing Secondary Keeps Group Too Static
Pittsburgh’s defense has taken a lot of hits. That’s not being talked about enough in the big-picture view. One downside to that, starting guys like Trenton Thompson in the secondary, is the Steelers’ defense being more conservative and basic. Understandably so, trying to put less on their plate and reduce the risk of miscommunication, but it’s harder to throw post-snap disguises against a rookie quarterback. It’ll make his reads and throws simpler, too. Pittsburgh’s taking the right play but if Thompson-Robinson starts making some throws, he’s capable of it, this could be why.
2. Browns Win Off Playaction
Expect Cleveland to take some deep shots, just like Pittsburgh. But the Browns will come off playaction and crossing/over routes as opposed to Pittsburgh’s shotgun/outside vertical philosophy. With the Steelers also likely to play with eight in the box, it’ll ask the corners and post-safety to contest downfield. Corners have to make plays on the ball, safety has to be disciplined to not get fooled.
3. Myles Garrett Finally Draws Headlines
Something Pittsburgh rarely gets credit for is their ability to minimize star players. Whether it’s Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, etc., those guys have made plays and won reps but didn’t take over and write the headlines of games. The Steelers have always had a good plan against Garrett, pairing their blocking scheme with their pass concepts, but you’re always nervous about Garrett having a big day.
Truth be told, Dan Moore Jr. has not been successful against him. Pittsburgh’s just found a way to get the ball out quickly and always a half-second before Garrett gets home. That must continue.
Prediction
Steelers: 16
Browns: 14
Season Prediction Record
6-3
