As we’ve been doing for several years now, we’ll break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the Green Bay Packers’ offense.
ALEX’S SCHEME REPORT
Packers Run Game
A two-man group led by Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Jones has been hurt throughout the season but is healthy now and had 20 carries in last week’s win over the Los Angeles Rams to Dillon’s nine, though the two had a similar snap share. On the season, their run game has statistically been average, averaging four yards per carry. They haven’t rushed over the goal line much, five such scores this season with only three of those from their running backs. QB Jordan Love has a pair, both inside the 10-yard line, once on 4th and goal from the 1 and once on 2nd and goal from the 9.
They have not been a big-play running game with just 16 rushes of 10-plus yards. That’s tied for 26th in football.
Schematically, the Packers are a heavy 12-personnel team, the fourth-highest usage on the season. Similar to Tennessee, they will go 2×2 with the tight ends in the boundary and twin receivers to the field. The Steelers handled that well against the Titans, bumping Patrick Peterson over to the slot, and they can be expected to do the same this week.
There is a mix of zone and man/duo. And there will have some variations to their run game. Like this Zorro toss, which has become common enough (including in Pittsburgh) but out of a Pony set with Dillon leading the way and motioning across as Jones takes the toss.
You will see Pony/2 RB sets with both backs on the field and they align in split-back looks more than most teams. That can be with both backs or with one running back and one tight end, often Josiah Deguara, who was an H-back type at Cincinnati.
Though this can be classified in the run or pass game section, the Packers run a ton of RPOs. According to Dave Bryan, 25 times over the last two weeks. With a youngish and generally inexperienced starting quarterback, they want to give Love lots of options and answers along the line, like you often see in college. It’s a variety of concepts and I’ll drop some below. Stack the box and sell out against the run and the Packers will just use the horizontal pass game to get their yards.
One last schematic note. On fourth down, they will use the Tush Push in short-yardage situations. Some other stats. They’re 20th in scoring offense averaging exactly 20 points per game. But even those numbers feel upwardly skewed. They scored 38 in Week One against the Chicago Bears and haven’t scored more than 24 since. Over their last six games, they haven’t scored more than 20 points.
Situationally, they’re a good third-down bunch, 10th at 41.7 percent, but are below average in the red zone, 18th at 51.9 percent. They don’t turn the ball over a lot, just 10 this season, though a lack of splash plays on defense puts them at a minus-two turnover differential.
Packers Pass Game
Jordan Love is in his first full year starting after the franchise closed the book on the Aaron Rodgers era, sending him to the New York Jets. Love’s first year has not gone well overall. He’s completing under 60 percent of his throws with 12 touchdowns to eight interceptions. He’s thrown a pick in five of his last six games, though one didn’t occur in Week Nine’s win over the Rams. And half of his touchdowns came in the first two weeks, throwing just six since. Love has been sacked a fair amount this year, including four times in each of the last two games.
His receiving corps is extremely young. None of his main weapons at wide receiver or tight end are older than 24 and include three rookies in WRs Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks and TE Luke Musgrave. Their leading receiver is second-year WR Romeo Doubs with a 30/312/5 line. And their big-play dude is WR Christian Watson, a height/weight/speed type who had a strong rookie season but been slowed by injury this year (and not catching passes from Rodgers). Still, Watson’s 17.2 ADOT (Average Depth of Target) is fourth-highest in the NFL.
Love is doing a nice job of spreading the football around. Six different Packers have caught a touchdown pass this season. As a team, they aren’t generating big plays in the passing game with just 19 going for 20 or more yards. That’s tied for 25th in football.
Conceptually, they run a lot of pass plays out of 2×2 while mixing in some empty formations. They like to spread the field and their routes generally attack vertically with the goal of stressing safeties and flooding coverages. Some examples from the last two weeks.
And like many NFL offenses at this point, the Packers like to use short-motion right on the snap of the football to change the picture for the defense. They often do this with Watson, a build-up speed runner who is best with a runway.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Packers week, Steelers fans!
The Green Bay Packers ride into town looking nothing like the Packers you have come to know over at least the last two decades. Jordan Love is under center as the new quarterback, and the offense is struggling mightily in the change from Aaron Rodgers to Love, which isn’t all that unexpected.
It doesn’t help that there’s not much creativity or the threat of taking the top off the defense with Love under center in head coach Matt LaFleur’s scheme. The Packers are extremely conservative, and amid that conservative mentality Love is struggling to do much of anything as defenses pack down into the box and play near the line of scrimmage.
He’s a good athlete at the position with a big-time arm and good accuracy, but he looks skittish quite a bit and unsure of himself. I’ve also noticed a guy who is afraid to make mistakes, which has him second-guessing throws and avoiding putting the ball into tight windows at times when throws are there.
The Packers run a ton of RPOs, too, which isn’t exactly threatening opposing defenses. Love is averaging 215 passing yards a game and has thrown for 1,790 yards and 12 touchdowns, but he has eight interceptions and has been sacked 18 times.
Early on in the season he was cutting it loose, but in recent weeks after some turnover-heavy performances he’s gone super conservative and really isn’t pushing the ball down the field all that much.
Like I said earlier, he doesn’t exactly have the weapons to do that.
Second-year receiver Christian Watson was supposed to be that answer as the true No. 1 receiver for the Packers, but he has struggled with injuries this season and has just 12 catches for 213 yards and a touchdown.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin stated Tuesday that Watson has the speed to take the top off defenses, but the Packers aren’t really letting him utilize it. He’s averaging just 8.2 yards per target, which is lower than expected for a weapon like that.
Fellow second-year receiver Romeo Doubs has had his moments this season and has a great relationship with Love, but there’s far too much inconsistency. Doubs has 30 receptions to lead the team and has 312 yards and five touchdowns, but he’s become an underneath piece for the Packers. That doesn’t exactly fit what he was in college, which was that downfield, big-play contested-catch guy.
The Packers are using him a bunch on tunnel screens and quick hitters.
Rookie Jayden Reed has impressed at times and really looks comfortable in the slot. He’s had a couple of big plays this season and brings good toughness and determination to the room, but the Packers haven’t let that Ferrari out of the garage entirely. They let the neighborhood get a peek every now and then, but they rarely roll it out into the driveway to put it on display.
Fellow rookie receiver Dontayvion Wicks has gotten some run in recent weeks and has performed well. He’s become a go-to possession guy for Love over the middle, one who isn’t afraid to go to that area of the field and make plays in traffic.
He has great speed, too, and is a shifty player, one who is still learning the nuances of the position after being a quarterback at times in college at Virginia before switching full-time to receiver.
Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave is arguably the Packers’ best offensive weapon. He’s a terrific move tight end with great hands who looks like a part of the future generation at the position in the NFL that keeps the tight end position quite prominent.
He has great body control, is tough as nails and his hands seemingly snatch anything in his vicinity. He’s a matchup problem as he’s too quick for linebackers and too big and strong for safeties.
Behind Musgrave at tight end, rookie Tucker Kraft has taken over the in-line role. He’s been rather quiet as a receiver but has had his moments as a blocker with his hand in the dirt. Same for No. 3 TE Ben Sims. They are a decent combination as in-line guys who handle blocking at a passable level.
H-back Josiah Deguara brings a real edge and toughness to the offense, but he’s nothing more than a fullback who can occasionally catch passes.
While Love gets a ton of attention in the offense, this group runs through the running backs. The duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon is one of the best in the NFL, period.
Jones has dealt with a hamstring injury all season, but he showed signs of full health last week against Los Angeles and had his best game of the season. When he’s healthy he’s an absurd combination of speed, power and athleticism.
He has great hands out of the backfield, good vision and gets downhill in a hurry.
Dillon is an absolute tank.
He looks like a linebacker playing running back, and he’s a load to bring down for opponents. He can really wear down defenses. Though he’s a big back, he has great feet, which continues to blow me away every time I watch him.
He reminds me of Jerome Bettis in that sense with his quick, light feet that allows him to change directions in a hurry.
When the Packers are at their best, they are a power rushing attack with play-action mixed in. The offensive line is banged up, but here is how I expect the unit to line up Sunday, left to right:
LT — Rasheed Walker
LG — Elgton Jenkins
C — Josh Myers
RG — Jon Runyan Jr.
RT — Zach Tom
On paper, even without standout left tackle David Bakhtiari, this is a good group.
They have two very good athletes at the tackles in Walker and Tom. I liked Walker quite a bit coming out of Penn State and was stunned to see him fall to the seventh round. Tom can play all over the offensive line and has burst onto the scene.
Jenkins struggles to stay healthy, but when he’s healthy he’s one of the best interior offensive linemen in football. Getting him to stay healthy is the key. It’s been hard for the Packers.
Runyan is the son of former Eagles offensive lineman Jon Runyan, and it’s no surprise that Junior is quite good. He is a people mover in the run game and plays well in pass protection. He’s become the vocal leader of the offensive line and plays with a real edge.
Myers is a name to watch. He’s a very good athlete up front, plays well in space and really gets after it in the run game. He was a guy I thought could be a fit for the Steelers coming out of Ohio State. Alas, he became a Packer.
On special teams, the Packers turned over a new leaf at kicker, moving on from Mason Crosby and bringing in rookie Anders Carlson. The Auburn product has had his moments, but he’s yet to hit a kick in the 40-49 range. He’s 11-for-11 everywhere else on field goals.
Rookie punter Daniel Whelan has performed well in his first season, averaging 47.8 yards per punt. He has a long of 68 yards on the season and seven of his 33 punts have been downed inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. However, he is outkicking his coverage often as the Packers are allowing an average of 10 yards per punt return.
In the return game, the Packers are in great hands with All-Pro Keisean Nixon. He’s averaging over 10 yards per punt return with a long of 34 and has a 51-yard kickoff return so far this season. Last year, Nixon had a 105-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and led the NFL with 1,009 return yards.
He’s a weapon.
