Kenny Pickett’s solid and game-saving fourth-quarter play comes as little surprise to those who watch him on a weekly basis. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ season has been defined by slow starts, late comebacks, and gritty wins. Such was the case in Thursday night’s win over the Tennessee Titans. Pickett began the game as poor as you could think, missing several wide-open throws for first downs or touchdowns, but saved face in the final 15 minutes with a game-winning drive, capped by his touchdown pass to WR Diontae Johnson.
But when it comes to numbers, relativity is everything. How strong have Pickett’s fourth quarters really been? The answer: really good.
Based off QB rating, Pickett has an appropriate fourth-best figure in the fourth quarter of games this year. Of qualifiers, here’s the top five of 2023.
Deshaun Watson/Browns – 139.5
Mac Jones/Patriots – 109.7
C.J. Stroud/Texans – 109.0
Kenny Pickett/Steelers – 108.2
Josh Allen/Bills – 106.2
An interesting list of names that exclude some of the top quarterbacks in football. For Pittsburgh at least, Pickett’s numbers aren’t inflated by garbage time. He didn’t finish the game of a blowout loss to Houston or mop up the final two minutes against Jacksonville when Mitch Trubisky padded some numbers. He did play the entire game against San Francisco and had some garbage time numbers but didn’t throw a touchdown or do any significant to skew the data like it could for some of the other names on this list.
Point being, Pickett has found the ability to flip the switch late in games. Understanding why that is and just as importantly, determining a way to copy and paste that to the first 45 minutes is key. Pickett certainly has a “clutch” factor about him, trite and cliché as it is. He’s tough and doesn’t get rattled. That doesn’t always mean or guarantee quality play. Pickett has struggled for large portions of the season, but it means he’s capable of meeting the moment late in the game. It also helps Pittsburgh’s defense has often afforded the opportunity, keeping the score down and doing enough to allow Pickett and the offense to go on these kinds of game-winning drives. They certainly aren’t doing it in shootout fashion.
But the disparity here is obvious. Fourth-best quarterback in the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters, his QB rating plummets to 75.3, 27th out of the 31 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts over that span. In the fourth quarter, his completion percentage is nearly 73 percent, fifth-best in the NFL. Over the first three quarters, it’s 58.6 percent, the worst of any qualifier.
Advantages like being able to go tempo and pick up the pace probably help. In those situations, it can be natural for numbers to improve. Defenses play a bit softer, the quarterback gets into a rhythm, these are just numbers that don’t account for all the context or replace the eye test. But Pickett’s play matches up. He’s made some big-time throws late in games. Early against the Titans, he repeatedly missed open receivers. By game’s end, he’s dropping dimes to Diontae Johnson down the right sideline in the game’s most critical moments.
The Steelers will have to find a way to win beyond this model and method. But if there’s a time for a quarterback to step up, it’s late in games. Pickett has done that, and it’s enough to allow Pittsburgh to compete through the end of the regular season.
