There have been plenty of struggles in 2023, particularly on offense. Our own Alex Kozora pointed out recently, that Pittsburgh’s offense is 31st in time-of-possession, 31st in plays, 30th in yards, and 31st in points. Today, I wanted to look at third-down specifically around the NFL on offense/defense, with the hopeful goal of finding important info to improve on the money-down.
Let’s start with third-down offense, on all run/pass plays using expected-points-added/play (EPA = measures the impact on the scoring potential of the drive):
From an EPA perspective, Pittsburgh ranks 26th. We can see they were well below average in 3/7 games, going 1-2 in those contests. Their worst performance came in the season-opener (7-30 blowout-loss) against the strong 49ers defense. Second-worst was last week against Jacksonville (10-20 loss).
- Two division wins despite negative EPA performances. Also, Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t had an above-performance at home this season. Painful, and hopefully changes for improvement.
Three performances have been above-league-average. None topped the chart (expectedly), going 2-1 in those games. The best was the 23-18 win against the Raiders, ranking 63rd among 244 offensive performances through week eight.
Here’s the data for third-down rushing offense:
Up-and-down to say the least. Overall, Pittsburgh’s third-down rushing offense has a -0.06 EPA that ranks 16th in the NFL.
The best mark was week one against the 49ers, on only two attempts that were successful. The first was Harris on third-and-one, an explosive 24-yarder (longest of 2023), a huge play on the only touchdown drive. Less notable in the fourth quarter, picked up just enough (third-and-two). Fourth-best team rank in the NFL week one, and 45th in 2023.
Against Houston, Pickett had a sneak conversion (third-and-one), but Warren was dropped for -2 (third-and-two). Other examples meant less in the blowout. Then, 2/3 against LA. Pickett’s third-and-one goal-line sneak touchdown, another sneak conversion (fourth-quarter), but a third-and-12 scramble failed.
- Three below-the-line. Two against the AFC North (Cleveland and Baltimore), with Pittsburgh dead last both weeks league-wide. They had only one attempt in each though, a Pickett-designed run for -3 (leading late), and a third-and-one (Harris) that was stuffed for no gain.
Just below-average against LV, but only 1/4 were successful. The conversion was another two-yard sneak, (go-ahead FG-drive). TE Heyward failed on third-and-one (opening-drive three-and-out). Others were situational: seven yards from Warren on third-and-14 (FG before halftime), and draining clock for the win. A prime example of EPA value compared to success rates at times.
- No attempts against Jacksonville, despite five third-downs of three yards or less. Avoidance of the third-and-short run game last week, when the offense went an abysmal 3/12 (25 percent) on third down. Hopefully, more confidence/success in the running game moving forward.
Now for third-down passing offenses:
Similar to the opening chart with a higher volume of passing plays league-wide.
- Four above-average performances in consecutive weeks (three-seven), going 3-1 in those games. Hopefully, a similar pass-game streak will reoccur starting Thursday.
LV game was the strongest, ranking eighth-best in week-three, and 53rd in 2023. Ten attempts, highlighted by a triple-explosive 72-yard touchdown to Austin and a 32-yarder to Pickens. Also successful: 13 yards (Pickens), and a big late-game third-and-two conversion (Robinson) for six yards. Fails: Pickett sack (third-and-four), the rest incompletions (two in fourth-quarter).
Second-best EPA was against LA. Two huge explosive plays: an explosive 39-yarder to (Johnson, led to a touchdown), and a 31-yarder (Pickens, on a 5:28 final drive and victory). Rough start, with incompletions to Pickens in the first two drives. The rest were also incomplete, including an intentional grounding and negated conversion (Pickens block).
Two other above-average against Houston and Baltimore. Successes in the former: a short catch by Harris for an explosive 32-yards. 12-yard conversion to Austin on third-and-seven also. Biggest failure: third-and-five interception late in the first half, along with catches stopped short (four) and incompletions.
- The Ravens game had the best success rate (46.2 percent). Explosive 21-yarder to (Pickens, part of the go-ahead touchdown drive), explosive 23-yarder to Warren (another conversion as well), two to Heyward, and one to Robinson. Two sacks though. Pittsburgh should look to reignite higher success like this Thursday.
Three home games were below the line, most recently Jacksonville. Four fails to start the game. The first conversion came mid-second-quarter (Johnson in the red zone), but painfully missed the following endzone target. The other two successes were third-and-twos (Johnson and Heyward) from Trubisky and two incompletions.
The first two games of 2023 were the others. Against Cleveland, Pickett was intercepted on the opening drive (third-and-three). Five incompletions and a sack, too. Highlights were a 25-yard-explosive (Pickens), and a third-and-three short-pass/explosive 30-yarder (Warren). The latter also had an 11-yard conversion, but two stopped short on third-and-a-mile (valiant efforts). Third-and-eight Austin conversion as well.
Week one horrendously had just one success (9.1 success rate). Sack, interception, incomplete, sack, incomplete, on five opening-drive three-and-outs. Incompletions and tackled short (two). The lone success: 31-yard explosive (Robinson), meaningless down big late.
Let’s see how third-down defenses have fared overall:
- Pittsburgh’s defense has undoubtedly been the team’s best unit, but also had issues on third down (23rd), compared to seventh overall. Also, no elite-EPA performances this season. Three above-the-line performances (weeks two, three, and five), all wins including two in the AFC North. High correlation to victory.
- The Baltimore win was the best EPA performance, ranking seventh in week five (75th in 2023), allowing just ten points. Four below-average games though, going 1-3 and 24 points a game. Not a recipe for Pittsburgh’s success.
Here’s third down run defense:
Yikes. Four below-average games (2-2 record). Last week was barely above-the-line, and the best performance by far was LV. Hopefully, DL Cam Heyward’s return provides a boost.
- Pittsburgh’s defense ranked sixth in week three (22nd league-wide). Two attempts, both stops: third-and-one sneak for no gain (Alexander), and a big fourth-quarter stop (Neal) just short (third-and-three). Limited them to a FG drive down late. Two stops against Jacksonville, both in the fourth quarter down ten-points on third-and-longs. Just one conversion, gaining just enough on third-and-one (Adams).
Pittsburgh faced the most attempts against Baltimore (six), with a 50-percent run-stop rate. Allowed an explosive 26-yard opening-drive scramble (Lamar Jackson, third-and-two). The two others were early third-and-shorts (15-play FG-drive). Two big stops for one-yard from Neal, and Roberts in the fourth quarter.
Against LA, 4/5 converted with backup RBs, including a third-and-goal touchdown. Big one-yard stop on a third-and-five (Fitzpatrick, FG-drive). Two third-and-ones picked up easily, and an eight-yard scramble on third-and-seven (Neal).
One stop on Houston (four attempts), a second-quarter third-and-one for no gain (Roberts). Opening-drive third-and-three at the five was an overturned sneak TD. Still picked up four yards (set up a touchdown). The others were fourth-quarter conversions with the game over.
Three attempts against SF: no gain on opening-drive third-and-one (converted on fourth though/TD-drive), seven yards on third-and-one (Alexander), and a third-and-eleven scramble for 17 (Porter) in the fourth quarter.
None against Cleveland, despite facing three third-and-twos or less.
Now for defenses against the pass:
- Three below-the-line, each coming the last four games, and a 1-2 record. They had the best performance against Baltimore, and a 3-1 record when they were above the line in EPA.
Eight plays against Baltimore. Two early incompletions, then a third-and-11 conversion (14-yards), followed by an explosive 29-yarder on third-and-18, then an eight-yard tackle by Sullivan (third-and-ten) denying the drive points before half-time. Alexander provided a sack on third-and-six (third-quarter). Then, a huge red-zone-interception from Porter. The last drive was big too, with the final third-and-seven incomplete (Peterson/Holcomb).
Six stops against SF, highlighted by Watt (sack and pressure) and three bats (Loudermilk-two, Leal-one). Three chunks though: a third-and-seven 16-yarder (plus Wallace penalty, FG-drive), 22 yards (third-and-four), and 15-yards (third-and-eight). Third down wasn’t the issue, with none of these plays on their three TD drives.
Most plays (16) and stops vs. Cleveland. Watt (pressure/sack), Porter coverage on third-and-eight (FG-drive), Ogunjobi pressure (third-and-16, missed-FG-drive), incomplete third-and-one (Neal coverage/Highsmith pressure), the Holcomb FF/Kazee FR, and late game Riley sack. Notable fails: 17-yard completion on third-and-four (Peterson, declined DPI), 16-yard conversion (third-and-13), and third-and-three-conversion (Wallace).
Big plays in LV: Watt (sack/punt-drive), late-game incomplete third-and-four (Alexander, limits to FG), Fitzpatrick stop, and Highsmith pressure. The biggest fail was a mid-fourth-quarter touchdown allowed on third-and-goal (Wallace), a 19-yarder (Alexander), and an 18-yarder (Wallace) on third-and-ones.
Houston was the worst EPA performance of the season. Highsmith had three pressures leading to incompletions (FG/two punts), along with an intentional grounding (punt). The pain started on a third-and-11 14-yarder (Wallace, TD-drive), and particularly the final-play third-and-seven double-explosive 52-yard touchdown (Peterson).
Two poor recent outings, starting with LA. Ogunjobi started things strong (sack, punt), but an explosive 24 and 22-yarder followed (Porter, Kazee). Good Porter coverage on a third-and-four incompletion (FG), but another explosive 36-yarder (Kazee, TD-drive before half-time). More pain on a fourth 20-yard explosive (Fitzpatrick/Kazee, TD drive). A bright spot was Benton with two passes-defensed (missed FG-drive, and final-drive-punt to win).
Jacksonville: Third-and-seven 26-yard-explosive (Porter), then seven-yard-stop (Neal, Holcomb, FG-drive). Another 29-yard explosive on third-and-nine (Killebrew), plus the questionable roughing penalty (Neal). Third-and-three conversion for five (Kazee). Great Holcomb stop for no gain (held to FG before half-time). Porter allowed an 11-yard catch, with a nice stop in the open field (punt). Third-and-five conversion for 11 yards (Peterson), followed by a split sack (Watt/Watts, punt).
- Pittsburgh’s defense is coming off their highest third-down success rate allowed (66.7), and their big play susceptibility is painful to highlight on money downs.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
