The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense is deservingly grabbing headlines this week, showing encouraging signs of life in Week 12. One of the biggest improvements was on third down. The defense was also fantastic on the crucial down, so today I wanted to provide context to that across the league.
Comparing Week 12 to the 2023 season, I’ll use a few data points: expected points added (EPA = scoring value compared to expectation per play), yards to the sticks, yards gained, and conversion rates. Looking at pass and run plays, with penalties, spikes, and kneels removed, we’ll get some very important context on things that will hopefully continue moving forward.
First up, offensive EPA:
Here we can see Pittsburgh’s offense has been below the NFL mean this season, with a -0.15 EPA that ranks 20th. Comparing that to Week 12 against Cincinnati, the Steelers improved vastly to a 4.2 EPA, ranking impressively at sixth leaguewide for their best mark of 2023. This was a huge factor on defense as well, the Steelers handing the Bengals the worst-EPA (-1.2) of the week.
Let’s add more situational context. Here are offenses’ average yards to the sticks, again looking at the season vs. Week 12:
Pittsburgh’s offense has averaged 7.2 YTS on third down this season, ranking 21st in least advantageous third-down situations. In Week 12, the Steelers averaged an even less-ideal 7.6 YTS, which adds impressive context to their recent success. The Bengals land on the top right, at favorable distances on third down in 2023, and in Week 12 (6.3 YTS, seventh) making Pittsburgh’s defensive performance all the more impressive.
Looking forward to Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals have put themselves behind the chains on offense and have the NFL’s worst YTS this season (8.3). QB Kyler Murray returned from injury in Week 10, and we see last week against the Rams wasn’t great either (8.1, 25th). Arizona’s defense gave up the fourth most manageable third-down situations of the week (5.9 YTG).
Now for yards gained on the money down for offenses:
The Steelers’ offense lands on the top right, most impressively ranking second in Week 12 with a whopping 10.9 yards gained, only behind the Dallas Cowboys, who top the NFL in 2023. Another encouraging factor to offensive improvements for Pittsburgh last week were six total explosive plays, three of which came on third down.
These three passes were their longest plays of the week (43, 39, and 29 yards), on two beautiful go balls to WRs George Pickens (3rd and 8), Diontae Johnson (3rd and 3), and to TE Pat Freiermuth (3rd and 13) between the hashes. QB Kenny Pickett was encouragingly aggressive and sharp, and these plays highlighted the impressive third-down outing on offense.
Pittsburgh dominated the Bengals’ poor third-down offense, which is 29th in 2023, amazingly forcing them into negative yardage on the down (-0.3). The Steelers had four sacks in Cincinnati in Week 12, impressive enough in itself, with all four of them coming on third down. Outstanding results on both sides of the ball.
Here are offenses’ third-down conversion rates:
Similar to the first chart, Pittsburgh is below the league mean on third-down conversions in 2023, ranking 23rd (35.9). They improved to a well-above-average 50 percent in Week 12 on 16 attempts (late game kneel down removed), tying for fifth best.
Of the 10 third downs the Bengals faced, only three gained yards and two converted (20 percent), tied for the third-worst mark in Week 12. Seeing Arizona’s below-average 35.3 conversion rate (23rd), along with everything else we’ve learned today, I feel very optimistic that the Steelers will continue their third-down success on both sides of the ball in Week 13.
Though I’ve discussed Pittsburgh’s impressive Week 12 outing on both sides of the ball, I wanted to provide the same visuals for defense, which will also allow us to compare to their season averages.
Defensive EPA:
Pittsburgh was the top-ranked defense in Week 12 as previously discussed (-1.2), compared to being right at the NFL mean on the season (-0.7, 17th).
Next, defenses’ third-down yards to the sticks allowed:
Cleveland has an eye-popping 8.6 YTS forced this season, yet another facet of the game its defense has been incredibly good at, and sheds additional light on Pickett’s struggles in the Week 11 matchup.
The Steelers’ defense is above league-average, forcing 7.3 YTS on third down, eighth best in 2023. As stated earlier, Week 12 wasn’t their best outing in these terms (26th), but they were still able to step up huge with clutch stops when it mattered most. The following average yards allowed on third down illustrates this point well:
By far the best unit of Week 12, (-0.3) including the aforementioned four sacks all coming on third down. This compares to being much more average on the season (5.4), ranking 17th.
To close, here are conversion rates allowed by defenses for Week 12 and the 2023 season:
The Steelers’ defense has been solid on third down in 2023, allowing a 37.8 conversion rate that ranks 13th. It was fantastic in Week 12 at 20 percent (T-third), shedding additional light on its dominance.
Of the many encouraging things we saw in the Week 12 AFC North matchup, huge props to Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball on the money down, a critical component to its divisional victory.
OFFENSE WEEK 12: EPA (sixth), yards gained (second), conversions (T-fifth).
DEFENSE WEEK 12: EPA (first), yards gained (first), conversions (T-third).
Here’s to hoping for more in Week 13 vs. the 2-10 Arizona Cardinals, who are largely below average on third downs on both sides of the ball.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
