The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-3 through the first 10 weeks of the NFL season, and while the team continues to focus on the next game, it’s hard not to look forward to the playoffs. After 10 weeks, the Steelers are fifth in the AFC thanks to holding the tiebreaker over the Cleveland Browns, the team the Steelers will face in Week 11. Also, Pittsburgh is only half a game back of the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC North lead, and Baltimore is currently second in the AFC playoff picture.
While there are still plenty of games to be played, the Steelers have put themselves in a good position for a playoff run. However, the picture isn’t all rosy, according to Aaron Schatz, the Chief Analytics Officer at the FTN Network and creator of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.) He joined Brian Batko on the Chipped Ham And Football podcast Tuesday, and he talked about his feelings about the team’s ability to contend based on the analytics.
“Unless the offense can figure out how to be a top-seven or top-eight offense rather than an average offense, you’re likely going to either just miss the playoffs or you’re going to make the playoffs and lose in the first round,” Schatz said. “If what you’re trying to root for is a Super Bowl contender, the Steelers do not seem like a top Super Bowl contender. Weird things happen, teams get in and they suddenly go on runs like the Giants in 2007, but they don’t look like a Super Bowl contender.”
It’s no secret that the offense has not been great this season. Even head coach Mike Tomlin knows that Pittsburgh needs more out of QB Kenny Pickett down the stretch. A lot gets made out of Tomlin’s quest to extend his streak of non-losing seasons, and Pickett’s improvement will certainly help that streak continue. However, there’s a second streak that factors into what Schatz is predicting for the Steelers’ future if Pickett and his offense don’t take a big step forward.
For all the talk about how good of a coach Tomlin is, and there’s good reason for that talk, Pittsburgh has not won a playoff game since 2016. For a franchise that is tied for most Super Bowl wins at six and views success through that prism, that is far too long since a playoff win. Then you have to go back to the 2010 season since the team played in a Super Bowl. That’s a lot of frustration, and Schatz predicts it will continue unless the offense becomes good-to-great.
If the Steelers want to get back to being the contenders that the franchise’s history says they should be, they need to find a way to get that first playoff win since 2016 out of the way. Schatz brings up the 2007 New York Giants as an example of anything happening once a team is in the playoffs. Perhaps getting that win could do the same for Pittsburgh. One way or another, a playoff win would do wonders for the players, the coaches, and the fans.
Now don’t take Schatz’s comments as him condemning the Steelers. People have continued to say that Pittsburgh is a bad team that somehow has lucked into a 6-3 record while pointing at the fact that the team has been outgained in every single game this season. Schatz disagrees with them.
“They are also just not a bad team, they’re just not bad,” Schatz said. “They’re a good team that’s dangerous to opponents. They’re dangerous to opponents in their own division.”
That’s a bit of a pick-me-up ahead of two straight divisional road matchups, first with the Browns and then against the Cincinnati Bengals. If those games go well, perhaps that will be the start of the Steelers’ offense making a jump leading to Super Bowl contention being more than a dream.
You can catch the entire conversation between Schatz and Batko below, including more analytical evidence that Pittsburgh is a good team.
