Just two seasons ago T.J. Watt tied Michael Strahan for the most sacks in an NFL single-season. Now, The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly believes he is destined to become the sole record holder.
“With 9 1/2 sacks through eight games, Watt is on pace for 20,” Kaboly wrote in The Athletic’s NFL second-half predictions article. “The single-season record is 22 1/2, which Michael Strahan and Watt share. The Steelers don’t play a terrible offensive line the rest of the way (i.e., no Giants or Commanders on the schedule). But what about the Bengals, Browns and Ravens? Watt has 39 of his 87 career sacks against those teams, and he has four games remaining against that trio.”
Currently, Watt is in a tie for second-most sacks with Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders star edge rushers Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby, respectively. Danielle Hunter of the Minnesota Vikings sits atop the list with 10 sacks, 0.5 more than Watt.
For the three-time All-Pro to emerge from the pack and beat the 22.5 record he will need to amass 12.5 sacks through his final nine games. In essence, he will need to average 1.2 per game from this point, but how realistic is that? Well, let’s break down his upcoming matchups.
First, on the docket, we have Green Bay Packers right tackle Zach Tom. A second-year pro out of Wake Forest, Tom has played 500 snaps this season, allowing just one sack. Despite enjoying a good season so far, I’m giving the edge to Watt as he will be the best matchup Tom has faced this season.
Next, we go to the Cleveland Browns. Despite Watt earning a sack in their first matchup, rookie Dawand Jones held his own against the five-time Pro Bowler, but he is in jeopardy of missing the game with shoulder and knee injuries. That would lead to James Hudson moving over to right tackle and a potentially big day for Watt.
A converted left tackle in Jonah Williams is next up and maybe Watt’s biggest challenge up to that point. Despite allowing three sacks on the year, per Pro Football Focus, the Bengals right tackle has been solid and handled his switch well.
A rookie in Paris Johnson Jr. visits from Arizona next, and it’s a fair bet to make that Watt will be his “Welcome to the NFL” game. Johnson only has a 50.1 PFF grade this season.
Two proven, NFL veterans come next in the Patriots’ Mike Onwenu and the Colts’ Braden Smith. Both have had solid years thus far but are on below-average teams with below-average quarterbacks, making for a signature Steelers slogfest, perfect for Watt.
After a second run-in with Williams, Watt gets a mountain of a man in Stone Forsythe. The 6-9 behemoth has allowed just two sacks this year but has only played 337 snaps, 60th among his peers.
Last but not least, we have the Baltimore Ravens and Morgan Moses. In their first meeting, Watt gave Moses fits, tallying two sacks against the big man. If more of the same is to come, expect a big day here for Watt.
After examining all his matchups, the path doesn’t seem impossible for Watt to break the record. Rookies and young players are littered through the remainder of the schedule, along with several divisional games. If he can put together a few multi-sack performances, don’t be surprised if Kaboly’s prediction comes true.
