The Steelers are now back at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex, facing down a long regular season that looks a lot more promising given how things have gone leading up to it. Finishing just above .500 last year, they anticipate being able to compete with any team in the league this season with second-year QB Kenny Pickett leading the way.
They’ve done a great deal to address what they identified as their shortcomings during the offseason, which included addressing the offensive and defensive lines as well as the secondary and the inside linebacker room, which is nearly entirely different from last year. The results have been positive so far.
Even well into the regular season and beyond, there are going to be plenty of questions that need answered. When will the core rookies get to play, or even start? Is the depth sufficient where they upgraded? Can they stand toe-to-toe with the Bengals and the other top teams in the league? We’ll try to frame the conversation in relevant ways as long as you stick with us throughout the season, as we have for many years.
Question: Does Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren have a better shot at hitting 1,000 rushing yards?
Just like last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers have turned it up on the ground in the second half of the season. Over the past four games, they have rushed for 696 yards, which is the most in the NFL in that span—slightly more than the Baltimore Ravens. Only four teams have rushed for 600-plus yards during that time, their past four games.
And for Pittsburgh, it’s been a combination of both running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Some games it was both of them. Other games it was one more than the other. The last time out it was more Harris, who rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries while Warren struggled a bit more. Yet he had his first two 100-yard games of his career in back-to-back weeks just before that.
With six games left to go, let’s make one thing clear: neither of them are on pace to hit 1,000 rushing yards. But it’s not out of reach if they can get things going. The platooning of the backfield, which is in the team’s best interest, will make it quite difficult for either of them to hit the mark. But who has the better shot?
Harris currently leads the team with 592 yards on 143 attempts. Warren closed the game a week earlier but is now more than 50 yards behind with 542 on 93. Harris is averaging 54.4 yards per game through 11 weeks while Warren is averaging 49.3.
Purely by the numbers, Harris would have to average 67 yards per game over the last six games to hit 1,000, a number he’s reached in four of 11 games. Warren needs 458 more yards, or 76.4 yards per game. He’s only hit that mark three times.
But let’s look at more recent trends. In the last four weeks, Harris is averaging 71.3 yards per game on 14.8 attempts, averaging 4.83 yards per carry. In that same span, Warren is averaging 91.8 yards per game with 12 attempts per game, picking up a whopping 7.65 yards per attempt.
But he’s probably not going to break off another 74-yard touchdown. He is averaging 6.23 yards per attempt even without that long run, though his per-game average drops down to 73.25. Not quite enough to hit his needed average, but if he can continue to hit a chunk play or two per game, that would balance it out.
