With the loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 11 in the rearview, and three AFC-North-matchups on tap including this week against the Cincinnati Bengals, I wanted to look at some important data points, focusing on the division. First, the current standings:
Pittsburgh has dropped to third in the AFC-North (2-1 division-record), swapping places with the Browns (3-2 division-record) and leaving the Steelers with an even 1-1 record against Cleveland, following the tough loss sans starting QB Deshaun Watson.
There’s a similar feeling going into the Cincinnati game this week, who are without starting QB Joe Burrow, and one-win beneath Pittsburgh in the standings going into the game on Sunday. The Bengals have an 0-3 divisional record, and a Steelers win would be huge in the tight AFC-North. Each team separated by one win, with the coming weeks critical for positioning and 2023-2024 playoff aspirations.
Baltimore sits at first-place, and has played extremely well in 2023 overall. They are coming off two divisional-games, a recent blemish allowing Cleveland a comeback-win, and getting the win on Cincinnati last week. Pittsburgh was victorious in Week-Five against the Ravens, who are 3-2 in the AFC-North.
Let’s dive into some data, with Expected-Points-Added (EPA = expected points before and after each play) for the AFC-North offenses by week:
Lots of good info, for example Cleveland’s offense having the fewest positive-EPA-performances (two). Their best mark was the Week 10 comeback against Baltimore, and painful to see their follow-up win against the Steelers last week, with both offenses being subpar. The Browns have won three-straight games, longest AFC-North streak.
Pittsburgh has four-positive-EPA games on offense: Week Three and Week Seven (Raiders, Rams), then two-in-a-row Weeks Nine and 10 at home (Tennessee, Green Bay). All resulted in wins, and 20-points or more on the scoreboard. The Titans game was their best EPA, ranking 74th out of 328 offensive performances league-wide. Largely, Pittsburgh’s worst marks came before the bye, three-of-four to start 2023, Week Eight vs. Jacksonville the exception, and Week Two vs. Cleveland bottoming the list (18th worst EPA this season).
Baltimore has a division-best seven positive-EPA-games, the Week Seven Detroit blowout by far the strongest (third-best league-wide). Worst was handed to them by Pittsburgh’s defense, holding them to ten points, their lowest scoring-output of 2023. Since, the Ravens have a 5-1 record, and scored 30-plus points the last five games. They’ll certainly have the season-finale Steelers rematch circled on the calendar.
Cincinnati’s chart is revealing to their season, with Burrow fighting through his calf injury as they struggled early, and were playing better post-bye prior to his season-ending wrist injury last week. QB Jake Browning stepped in, throwing a late red-zone passing touchdown, and hopefully his first NFL start is a “welcome-to-the-league” moment, via Pittsburgh’s defense.
Speaking of which, here are defensive EPA results:
Cleveland’s defense tops the division and the NFL in EPA, with eight positive-performances, including two against Pittsburgh. The Week Nine shutout vs. Arizona was the top-ranked EPA in all of 2023. Baltimore also has a strong seven positive-EPA-games, ranking second league-wide. Two-of-three below-the-line performances came the last two games, each within the division, interesting and worth monitoring.
Pittsburgh ranks ninth in EPA, with six above-the-line games. Top-three came before the bye: Weeks Two (Browns), Three (Raiders), and Five (Ravens). Two in the division was encouraging, the latter Pittsburgh’s best outing (56th league-wide). Two defensive touchdowns from the Steelers edge rushers against Cleveland, three interceptions on Las Vegas, and three turnovers/ten-points allowed on Baltimore, all crucial to victories.
Two-worst came in this span though, blowout losses: Week One (49ers), Week Four (Houston). Less up-and-down post-bye, but less correlation to wins (positive-EPA=1-2, negative-EPA=2-0), the last loss a painfully prime example.
Cincinnati’s defense has the worst divisional EPA (25th), with five in the negative. Two-lowest came in the first four games, their worst coming against Baltimore Week Two. The Bengals recent downtrend the last three games (1-2 record) will hopefully continue against Pittsburgh this Sunday.
Next, success rates for offenses and defenses from nflfastR, which is defined as EPA > 0 for each play:
Wow, the Browns defense. They’re by far tops league-wide, allowing success at only 33.1-percent, while the offense is a division-worst (38.4), 29th in the NFL. Baltimore is the only AFC-North team above average on both sides of the ball: fourth on defense (39.7) and fifth on offense (47.2), impressively. Cincinnati has been above-average on offense (44.4, 11th), but next to last defensively at 46.7-percent. Hopefully that’s advantageous for Pittsburgh this week, as they try to right their offense (39.7, 26th). The defense lands near the mean (42.4, 14th), third in the division, giving data-context to that strength in the AFC-North.
Now for a points view of offenses and defenses from Pro Football Reference:
Baltimore and Cleveland are above the mean on both sides of the ball. The former lands on the top right among the best teams, averaging 27.6 on offense (fourth) and 16.1 on defense (second), for a strong 11.5 differential (third). The Browns best-mark is on defense (18.0, sixth), expectedly, while the offense is slightly above average (22.7, 13th).
Pittsburgh’s defense is once again third in the division on defense (19.5), one spot below Cleveland at a solid seventh-rank league-wide. The offense is worst in the division, and their well-documented struggles to put up points a main reason OC Matt Canada was fired (16.6, 28th). Cincinnati is the only AFC-North team below-the-mean in both, 20.2 on offense (T-20th) and 22.6 defensively (21st). Pittsburgh offense, time to score more points.
Another key factor to team success is turnovers, and here are the results for both sides of the ball through Week 11:
This facet of the game has been Pittsburgh’s bread-and-butter, turning the football over just eight times which ties for first league-wide, along with 19 takeaways (T-second), for the best +11 turnover differential in the NFL. This is the main reason the Steelers are 6-4 despite so many other struggles, which hopefully improve as they lean on this strength.
Eerily similar are the Bengals, one-of-three teams tied for the least turnovers on offense. This is of course with Burrow at the helm, and this week they’ll likely be conservative with their backup QB in hopes of similar results. Cincinnati’s defense is second-divisionally, just below Pittsburgh (18, T-sixth). Critical component for Week 12.
Baltimore is barely above the mean in both, with 14 turnovers (T-16th) and 15 takeaways (T-13th), their lowest ranks of the entire article. Cleveland also has 15 takeaways, meaning all AFC-North teams are above-average in takeaways. They’ve been the worst-divisionally by far in turnovers, T-29th league-wide with 20, with Pittsburgh getting one on an interception last game (CB Chandon Sullivan).
Here are teams’ explosive plays:
Also an intriguing part of this week’s matchup, dedicating a separate explosive play article to the topic this week, and ranks will be included at the end of the article. The struggles on both sides for Pittsburgh are a huge flaw, and has negatively impacted so many other issues on offense.
This includes key drive extending third down conversions:
Pittsburgh’s offense has a 34.6 3DCR, ranking 25th (third in AFC-North), while the defense lands at 39.2-percent (T-17th). Baltimore is above-average in both once again, fifth offensively (44.6-percent) and sixth on defense (35.2), fourth-best differential league-wide. The Browns defense “break” the chart again, with a crazy 25.4-rate including the stifling of Pittsburgh’s offense last game (3-of-14, 21.4-percent). Hopefully that improves, considering Cincinnati’s below-average marks, particularly on defense: 43.8-percent (28th).
How about red-zone scoring rates:
Baltimore tops another chart with a 65.2-RZSR offensively, and just 37.8 on defense, for a league-best 27.3-differential that’s nearly ten-more than any other team. Pittsburgh’s defense has been great, second-divisionally and fourth league-wide (40.0-percent), but the offense is the only AFC-North squad below-the-mean (47.4-25th).
This week’s matchup is Cincinnati’s average RZSR-defense (53.8-17th), and are second-divisionally on offense (59.3-eighth). Cleveland’s offense ranks 12th (56.7-percent), and their defense finally shows weakness with a division-worst-rank (61.9-24th) but on the fewest-trips-allowed (21). Red-zone-attempt ranks for context: BAL-T-sixth, PIT-10th, CIN-30th. Hopefully Pittsburgh’s offense can get to the red-area and capitalize.
To close, here’s a favorite here at Steelers Depot, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), then a ranks-summary-list for each stat:
Yes, Baltimore’s on top again. 7.0 OANY/A (fourth) and the NFL’s-best 3.6 DANY/A for the second-best differential league-wide. Cleveland’s 4.1 DANY/A ranks second, but tie for last with a 3.7 OANY/A. Pittsburgh is just-above-average with a respectable 5.5 DANY/A, but a rough 4.7 OANY/A (25th). Cincinnati is below-average in both again, 5.5 OANY/A (T-19th) and 6.2 DANY/A (T-22nd).
The data-points leave some optimism for the transitioning Pittsburgh offense, giving context to how tough the last Cleveland matchup was, and hopefully improvements ahead against Cincinnati’s defense. Here’s to hoping for a strong remainder of 2023, led by the defense, and success in the AFC-North.
AFC NORTH RANKS-SUMMARY LEAGUE-WIDE:
