The old saying is “it’s better to be lucky than good.”
Well, turns out the Pittsburgh Steelers have been quite lucky in the first five games of the season, leading to a 3-2 record coming out of their Week Six bye.
According to data compiled by Tom Bliss, an NFL Ops data scientist, the Steelers are one of the luckiest teams in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season based on Net Win Probability Added (WPA) per play on plays such as dropped interceptions, dropped passes, missed field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries.
In the data compiled by Bliss, the Steelers have a plus-86% total increase in WPA combined on the plays, well behind the league’s luckiest team in the Los Angeles Chargers (plus-166%), while having a sizable gap in front of the Kansas City Chiefs in third place (plus-61%).
In Bliss’ data, the Steelers have a plus-16.9% advantage due to dropped interceptions.
Though quarterback Kenny Pickett has thrown just four interceptions on the season in 159 attempts, he has recorded a turnover-worthy play of 2.7%, which is a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling, according to Pro Football Focus.
After struggling in that department early, Pickett has cleaned things up in recent weeks and gotten close to his rookie-season numbers in which he had a 2.5% turnover worthy play in 2022 with 12 total plays in 13 games. He has five in five games this season.
Pittsburgh did benefit in recent weeks from dropped passes, especially in Week Five against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens dropped seven passes in the 17-10 Steelers win, including at least two that should have been touchdowns. Rashod Bateman dropped a pass in the end zone and Nelson Agholor let one go through his hands after beating Chandon Sullivan deep for a would-be score.
According to Bliss’ numbers, the Steelers have a plus-28.1% net win probability added on dropped passes. Pittsburgh also sees a plus-12.4% WPA on missed field goals. So far this season, the Steelers have seen only Cleveland kicker Dustin Hopkins miss a 43-yard field goal in Week Two in Pittsburgh’s 26-22 win. No kicker against the Steelers has missed an extra point on the year.
The biggest difference for the Steelers is in the fumble-recovery department, where they add a plus-28.6% WPA.
Forced fumbles by outside linebacker Alex Highsmith that T.J. Watt recovered in Weeks Two and Five — one of which he returned for a touchdown — and a forced fumble by defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi come to mind as key, game-changing forced fumbles and recoveries by the Steelers.
The Watt recovery and score against the Browns in Week Two is the biggest game-changing play from WPA, too. It gave the Steelers a late lead in the fourth quarter, leading them to a rather improbable win.
There is a ton of skill involved in the strip sacks from Highsmith, though there is some luck with Watt being the guy to have the ball bounce right to him. But again, it’s better to be lucky than good.
The Steelers will take that luck as they are 3-2 and in good position in the AFC North coming out of the bye week while getting healthy.
