A number of pundits have shared their thoughts on the state of the Pittsburgh Steelers through six games during the 2023 season. The biggest takeaway tends to be surprise. How can a team that plays as poorly as they have, as often as they have, get out to a 4-2 start?
It seems unlikely, and historically, it is. Boasting a minus-24 point differential, the Steelers are only one of eight teams in the post-merger era to have been outscored by at least that many points in their first six games while winning four or more of them.
And history is not exactly in the Steelers’ favor. If you actually look into the seven previous teams to start out 4-2 while being outscored so handily, it isn’t pretty, though there may be a glimmer of hope. The first team to do it was the Green Bay Packers in 1970, who finished that season 6-8. It didn’t happen again until 1992 with the Denver Broncos, who finished 8-8.
In fact, only two of the previous seven teams to go 4-2 or better in their first six games while being outscored by 24-plus points went on to have a winning record. Only one of them reached the playoffs. That was the 2020 Cleveland Browns, who posted an 11-5 record and then beat the Steelers in the Wildcard Round.
In other words, for the first time in a long time, the Steelers are hoping to be like the Browns. That Cleveland team finished the season with a minus-11 point differential, though the season-opening 38-6 loss to the Baltimore Ravens didn’t help. In fact, take that out, and they had a plus point differential through six games and through the entire season.
Indeed, that is one thing in common that Browns team has with this Steelers team. Their wins were close, but their losses could be blowouts. They also lost to the Steelers that year 38-7, but they typically won by one possession, and never more than 14 points.
Obviously, if you have more wins than losses, then your wins have to be closer in score than your losses are in order to have a negative point differential. But there is something remarkable about having four wins and two losses and yet allowing 24 points more than you’ve scored.
One thing that the more successful teams falling into this category had in common was a young team with a young starting quarterback. One could reasonably expect there to be an improvement over the course of the season that might provide some balance to that point differential.
The other team that posted a winning record was the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were outscored by 30 points in the first six games despite winning four of them. They finished 10-6 with a plus-23 point differential for the season. But they were in a division with the 13-3 Atlanta Falcons and the 11-5 New Orleans Saints, so they missed out on the playoffs in a strong year for the NFC.
Can this Steelers team with a young Kenny Pickett have better luck? The AFC seems to be the stronger conference this year, and the AFC North in particular is going to be a handful. The Baltimore Ravens are 5-2, the Browns 4-2, and the Cincinnati Bengals, getting their act together, are up to 3-3.
