Remember the summer? When the Pittsburgh Steelers looked like they were poised to make a jump, compete in the AFC North, and try to reach “contender” status. One month into the 2023 NFL season and the Steelers’ playoff hopes look bleak. Despite sitting at 2-2, ESPN’s analytics give Pittsburgh just a 22.2 percent chance at making the playoffs and only a 5.2 percent chance of winning the AFC North.
Their current projection puts them at a season’s finish of 8-9, which would be the first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ first since 2003.
Of teams sitting at .500 or better, only the Washington Commanders have worse playoff odds (15.7 percent). Even the 1-3 Minnesota Vikings have a better chance of reaching the postseason than the Steelers’ projection.
Pittsburgh is coming off a terrible loss on the road to the Houston Texans, blown out 30-6. Both of the team’s losses this year have been by huge amounts, dropping the season opener to the San Francisco 49ers, 30-7. Losing games by large margins have become an all-too-common occurrence for the Steelers. Their offense has sputtered throughout the year while the defense sorely misses DT Cam Heyward and is far too inconsistent to be trusted, allowing big chunks on the ground and splash plays through the air. Already, they’ve allowed four plays of 40-plus yards, one of the worst marks in football. For all of 2022, the Steelers only allowed eight such plays.
The outcome of Sunday’s game against the Baltimore Ravens will swing Pittsburgh’s playoff odds even more. If the Steelers can find a way to pull off the upset, they’ll regain control of the AFC North heading into the bye. If they lose, the Ravens will have a game in-hand against them with a far better overall record (4-1 versus 2-3) with the chance to move to 5-1 as the Steelers come out of their bye. That would essentially shut down any chance of Pittsburgh winning the AFC North and force the Steelers to make the playoffs through a Wild Card spot. If the Steelers don’t capture the division crown this year, it’ll be the first time they have gone three straight years without doing so since 2011-2013.
The team with the best playoff odds is the Buffalo Bills, sitting pretty at over 98 percent, beating out the two undefeated teams in football (Philadelphia and San Francisco). The worst odds go to the 0-4 Carolina Panthers at 0.7 percent.
