The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off another game where the offense struggled to get things going for much of the game, then flipped a switch in the fourth quarter to seal another victory. QB Kenny Pickett was great in the fourth quarter, and today I wanted to compare this interesting fact with the rest of the NFL.
Here are quarterbacks expected points added (EPA = expected points before and after each play, measuring its impact on the scoring potential of the drive) by first – third quarter, then the fourth quarter as passers:
Pickett’s strong fourth quarter play ranks third in the NFL in terms of EPA (0.26), and is the only quarterback in the top three that is below average in the first three quarters. He ranks 30th out of the 34 qualifiers in first – third quarter EPA (-0.21), fifth worst so far in 2023.
This gives specific context to how volatile he’s been. Pickett has the biggest differential from clutch time in the fourth quarter and the rest of the game by far at 0.47, with the next quarterback at 0.34. The question of why has been asked at nauseam, and it’s a tough one to answer for a multitude of reasons. Execution, coaching, etc. If one element is off, it’s been bad news.
Discouragingly, it happens to Pittsburgh way too often. Of course, the fourth quarter play from Pickett and the offense has been awesome, but a tease of potential to be more consistent throughout games. At least we’re talking about this end of the spectrum with Pickett’s clutch time ability, and seeing adjustments made by the coaches and players late in games leading to victories.
Let’s dive deeper into the numbers by individual quarter:
First Quarter: -0.64 EPA, last.
Second Quarter: -0.09 EPA, 22nd.
Third Quarter: -0.08 EPA, 19th.
Fourth Quarter: 0.26 EPA, 3rd.
First quarters have been painful to watch for Steelers fans this season, and the passing EPA data highlights Pittsburgh as the worst team in football at the start of games. Their second quarter EPA highlights a substantial improvement before halftime, which also deserves props. Yes, there’s a caveat to passing more later in the quarter if you are down on the scoreboard, which has been the case in four of six games.
This got me curious what Pickett’s two-minute EPA in the second quarter looked like. There has been a similar “clutch-ness” with Pickett before halftime, with a 0.18 EPA that ranks ninth in the NFL, and is much better than his 22nd rank through the entire quarter. Coach Mike Tomlin drills situational football routinely in practice, which has paid dividends at the end of each half.
Coming out of halftime, Pickett has barely moved the needle in his passing EPA number compared to the second quarter, but does move up a few spots in the ranks. This is another area the entire organization will hopefully improve upon, with time for coaches to make bigger adjustments than in game, along with players needing to come out of the locker room ready to execute better.
Then we have Pickett’s consistent late game success, leading five fourth quarter comebacks and six game-winning drives in his young 19 game career. In passing EPA this season, Pickett is a top three quarterback in the fourth quarter, and in the top ten in the final two minutes of the second quarter. Seeing the improvement in the ranks in each quarter is an encouraging aspect of the passing EPA numbers for Pickett and company. The lack of it to open the second half, and particularly painful first quarter passing EPA that is dead last in the NFL must improve for the Pittsburgh Steelers to reach their full potential.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
