Assuming QB Kenny Pickett isn’t ready to go Thursday, and it’s looking doubtful he’ll play, the Pittsburgh Steelers are likely to turn to Mitch Trubisky as next man up. The backup all season, he’s the guy who signed a multi-year deal to stay with the team this offseason, cementing him in that backup spot. Anything other than Trubisky taking the first snap against the Tennessee Titans will be an upset.
But is it the right choice? A different question. In one key way, Mason Rudolph is the better alternative.
Trubisky is an arguably more talented quarterback than Rudolph. More athletic. More battle-tested. At his best, capable of making some really impressive plays. But the ugly side of Trubisky, the reason why he never lived up to his franchise-quarterback label in Chicago, shows up far too often. The risk-taking, the bad decisions, the costly turnovers.
Sunday was the latest example. To his credit, Trubisky made a handful of solid throws and led the only touchdown drive of the game, a 22-yard score to WR George Pickens. That’s the upside to Trubisky. The downside? Everything else.
Nothing was more backbreaking than his fourth-quarter interception, his first pick of the day. With Pittsburgh down 17-10 in a competitive game, Trubisky fired deep down the seam for WR Allen Robinson II. Three Jaguars defenders swarmed around the ball and safety Andrew Wingard picked it off, a throw that had no chance of being completed. It led to a Jaguars field goal, making it a two-possession game Pittsburgh couldn’t come back from. Obvious as it was, after the game, Trubisky admitted he forced the throw.
That’s who Trubisky is. Who he has always been. On paper, he’s not a bad backup quarterback and has plenty of attractive traits. The experience, the baseline level of talent, the leadership, a level of humility and likeability where guys want to rally around him. He’s a good dude and a not-terrible quarterback.
But in Pittsburgh, only one thing on offense matters. Taking care of the ball. It sounds obvious and definitely cliché but it goes beyond the standard “ball security is key” line said by every head coach and offensive coordinator at any level of football. The Steelers can’t turn the ball over. At all. I’m not just talking turnover differential, usually the key stat in truly determining a winner and loser. In the post-Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers almost never lose when they play completely clean football. When they turn the ball over at all, no matter what the differential was, their record tanks.
They’re 9-1 without a turnover. They’re 4-10 with at least one. It creates a “scared” offense that has its obvious consequences. As I noted in that tweet, it leaves them no margin for error, no room for any mistake. What that requires is a quarterback hyper-focused on taking care of the football, more than a normal quarterback. There isn’t “Hey, we threw a pick, we’ll get it back.” And it’s not like Pittsburgh lacks a defense that can bail its offense out. That’s how they’ve been winning. But the numbers are the numbers. It’s why the Steelers so dramatically turned around their season a year ago. They basically never turned the ball over. They had a quarterback who played it safe, secured the football, and Pittsburgh gutted out a bunch of hard-fought victories.
Trubisky isn’t that guy. It’s in his DNA to be aggressive. That has its rewards. And in other systems, a Bruce Arians-led scheme for example, can work. Just not in Pittsburgh. Whether it’s the Baltimore Ravens game last year or Sunday against Jacksonville, Trubisky will make too many costly mistakes downfield. His best showing after being benched for Pickett came in his start against Carolina where he was asked to do very little. Pittsburgh ran the ball a whopping 45 times, Trubisky threw it only 22, and crucially, didn’t give the ball away as the Steelers came out on top, 24-18.
Sure, it’s possible Trubisky plays another clean game. But do you trust him to do it? All it takes is one play for him to revert to classic Trubisky and make a mistake that just crushes you. Since becoming the backup, he’s thrown three touchdowns and five picks (granted, his final one Sunday was a Hail Mary but he should’ve been picked at least once earlier in the game). That’s a ratio you can’t win with in Pittsburgh.
Rudolph isn’t some incredible caretaker of the football. But he plays within a system. He can and will take vertical shots, it’s honestly the best part of his game, but he’ll do exactly what he’s told. He’s a paint-by-numbers quarterback who won’t stray from the system or game plan. It doesn’t produce a big upside, he’s a career backup quarterback, but it lowers the risk of him hurting Pittsburgh’s chances with turnovers. Right now, that’s about the only thing that matters to this team. The guy who can take care of the football the best should start. That might be Rudolph.
In reality, Trubisky is likely to get the nod. We’ll hear from Mike Tomlin very shortly during his Monday press conference. He’s been the No. 2 quarterback, and on a short week, there isn’t time for even the illusion of competition as there was last season in the run-up to the Panthers game, though Trubisky was still given the keys.
And, of course, when Pickett is healthy enough to play, hopefully for Week 10 against Green Bay, he should return as the starter. I’m not suggesting anything other than what to do in the interim. But for this game, Rudolph looks like the team’s best option, even if he’s probably going to begin Thursday night on the bench.
