With the Pittsburgh Steelers on their 2023 bye week this week, it makes for a perfect opportunity for us to take our first way-too-early look at the team’s 2024 salary cap situation.
While a lot of things will certainly change between now and the end of the 2023 season, this quick and early snapshot of the Steelers’ 2024 salary cap situation should provide a fairly nice, yet rough, outline of what things will look like for the team once their initial Rule of 51 is established in January or early February.
This look ahead at the Steelers’ 2024 salary cap situation includes a lot of educated projections in addition to actual amounts of salary cap charges for the 40 players that are currently under contract with the team next season.
With just 40 players currently under contract with the Steelers for the 2024 season, we must build out an estimated top 51. To do so, we need to add 11 placeholders for 11 players. Using a cap charge of $915,000 for each, the base salary for a second-year player in 2024, is a safe and accurate way to build out a projected Rule of 51 from my past experiences as it helps cover the draft class. My mock Rule of 51 has a cap charge total of $249,145,564.
The Steelers also currently have $301,114 in projected dead money on the books for 2024 and that number will obviously grow from there as next offseason progresses. That dead money is accounted for in the table below. So, the total of this way-to-early mock Rule of 51 for 2024 is $259,511,678.
The 2024 offseason workout bonus placeholder amount should be $907,200. I am also projecting that the Steelers will roll over $3 million in unused 2023 salary cap space to 2024. That number obviously could wind up being a little higher but it’s nice to overshoot a little just the same.
So, as we sit here at the bye week of the 2023 regular season, the Steelers, per my educated projections, are roughly $1,418,878 over a currently and widely projected 2024 NFL salary cap number of $256 million, a number which could obviously wind up being a little bit higher.
The Steelers will have a lot of fairly predictable offseason expenses in 2024 and that is the case every year. You can see a breakdown of those projected expenses below in the table. Those expenses, all of which come into play right before the start of the 2024 regular season, total out to be $14.59 million with $7 million of that being available space for the team to use come Week One of the 2024 regular season.
In essence, the Steelers, as we sit here today, are effectively $16,008,878 over the early projected cap number for 2024 if you also account for all estimated expenses throughout the entire offseason. Don’t, however, be alarmed by that number being way over the cap as the offseason expenses come at several different mile markers along the way, if you will. To be specific, around $14.59 million of those projected future salary cap expenses for 2024 don’t really come into play until the final roster construction takes place and after the Rule of 51 comes to an end. Those projected future salary cap expenses are only provided as a guide of what needs to be accommodated before Week One of the 2024 regular season.
Now, at the very bottom of the table below there is one notable player listed that the Steelers could do a full restructure on, along with the savings it would create if indeed done fully and without any voidable years being added. Thanks to the contract extension signed by Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith this past offseason, he has now become a primary potential candidate for restructuring at some point next offseason, should the team need additional salary cap space. That might not ultimately be needed, however, but it is an option that would free up as much as $7,258,500 in 2024 salary cap space. Just keep that in the back of your mind moving forward.
As for other offseason salary cap savings for 2024, there are a few main elephants in the room that probably will need some attention early next offseason. That list of elephants could include DT Larry Ogunjobi, T Chukwuma Okorafor, C Mason Cole, and CB Patrick Peterson as all four have March roster bonuses due. Terminating the contracts of all four players before paying their respective March roster bonuses would clear $26,566,666 in 2024 salary cap space prior to top 51 roster displacement taking place. That amount could be as high as $30.1 million if Ogunjobi is cut with a post-June 1 designation attached to him. Will all four wind up having their contracts terminated prior to their respective March roster bonuses coming due? It’s hard to say for sure right now but I bet at least two are and I won’t be surprised if all four are.
As far as a few other offseason elephants that might need some attention next offseason goes, that list could include WR Allen Robinson II, ILB Cole Holcomb, and ILB Elandon Roberts. None of those three players have offseason roster bonuses due so the decisions on those three players could be put off until later in the offseason and specifically until after the 2024 NFL Draft takes place. Robinson and his $10 million base salary he is set to earn in 2024 really sticks out, however, so a contract termination for him in March isn’t totally out of the question if he’s not open to taking a straight pay cut.
Once again, this salary cap outlook for 2024 is way, way early and full of projections and because of that, it is a very rough first look. Even so, it should give all of you reading this post a pretty loose guide as to where you can expect the Steelers to be at after the 2023 season ends and the initial Rule of 51 is established in the early spring. I think, however, I have provided enough information in this post to show that while the Steelers’ early spring 2024 salary cap space outlook isn’t great, the team should easily be able to clear a massive amount right around the start of the new league year in March. In closing, the team’s early 2024 cap situation might look a bit bleak as we sit here at the 2023 bye week, but it certainly is pliable, nonetheless.
As the 2023 season progresses into the later stages, I will periodically provide updates on the Steelers’ 2024 Rule of 51 number along with updated projected numbers.
