There have been many issues to start the 2023 season for the Pittsburgh Steelers, with many people (including myself) understandably focusing on the offense. From a yardage perspective, Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 29th in total yards, 25th in passing, and 29th in rushing, while the defense is 30th in total yards, 26th in passing, and 29th in rush yards allowed. So, 25th and lower in each ranking. Ouch.
Today I wanted to zero in on run defense, examining those problems further to get some situational context, and considering the strong attack the Baltimore Ravens present this week (currently fourth in rushing yards this season).
First, let’s look at early down success rates league wide:
- First Down Rushing Success = A rush that gains less than 40 percent of the needed yardage (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded).
- Second Down Rushing Success = A rush that gains less than 50 percent of the needed yardage (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded).
Very telling visual. Pittsburgh has been respectable at stopping the run on first down, 57.4 percent of the time to be exact, which currently ranks ninth in the league. First down is obviously the most frequent, so their top ten mark there is encouraging. Despite this, the glaring issue has been on second down, where they dip all the way down to 36.1 percent and ties for 27th. This has allowed opposing offenses to extend drives and be in manageable late down situations, and will be high on my radar in terms of hopeful improvement.
Speaking of which, let’s see how defenses have fared on late downs (third and fourth), with rushes that do not pick up a first down are considered a success:
Pretty impressive considering the above information. The Steelers run defense ranks seventh in late down success currently, with a 62.5 success rate. While this has been a good aspect of their run defense, this has come on just five attempts (T-14th). Small sample for sure, but strong weighty down play deserves credit thus far and will hopefully continue.
Now for the total success rates:
The Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for 15th overall in run defense success rates, a far better mark than their 29th rank in rush yards allowed. They are tied for the fourth most attempts as well, so they have been on the field a ton and land towards the middle of the pack in terms of success.
This got me curious to their play by half, to see if they have gotten gassed over the course of games:
As expected, the run defense has fared better in first halves with a 51.7 success rate that ranks ninth. In the second half, Pittsburgh has dropped to a below average 48.1 success rate that ranks 22nd in the NFL. Teams have been able to largely stick with their running game against the Steelers defense in 2023, tied for the 11th most attempts faced in the second half. This highlights the negative effect game circumstances and the offense have put on the unit, along with the lack of success they’ve had in those situations.
To close, I wanted to add more context to the success rates with 10-plus yard runs, seeing which defenses have allowed the most chunk plays to the opposition:
As you probably guessed, this is an area the Steelers must improve moving forward. They have allowed 13 runs of 10-plus yards, which ties for 19th in the league. Most painful were the first two weeks of the season, allowing five to the 49ers including a 65-yard triple explosive touchdown to 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, who had four 10-plus runs, and another triple explosive 69 yarder and near touchdown to Browns RB Jerome Ford the following game.
Week three was an encouraging limitation of the Raiders on the ground, with Josh Jacobs having just one ten yarder. Pittsburgh took a step back against Houston in terms of quantity, allowing four 10-plus runs, but the longest being 13 yards. Also, no touchdowns on these plays either.
In terms of scrambling, Pittsburgh allowed a 10+ yarder in three out of four games: Brock Purdy (17 yards), Deshaun Watson (12 yards), and C.J. Stroud (11 yards). This is crucial for the next opponent in the Baltimore Ravens, who love to run the ball and are led by QB Lamar Jackson’s 220 yards, most at the position and 19th overall in the NFL. He has 11 runs of 10 yards or more this season and four touchdowns in as many games. The Steelers defense better continue some of their positive trends of late, and be ready for this rare challenge at quarterback.
So, some strengths thus far in 2023 have been first down success (ninth), first half success (ninth), and late down success (seventh). Their total success rate has been more middling (T-15th), along with tying for 19th in 10+ runs. A key word for Pittsburgh’s hopeful improvement in run defense moving forward is “second”, second down (T-27th) and second half (22nd). One thing that has trended positively is “explosive”. Not allowing a run of 20 yards or longer in the last two games after giving up two triple explosives is encouraging, and skews their 29th ranked rushing yardage allowed through four games.
Hopefully this trend will remain true against Baltimore this week, or we’re likely in for another rough game.
